Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper provides a background analysis of Rwanda's development trajectory, focusing on its strategic goals under Vision 2050, economic performance, and structural challenges. It details the country's transition from a low-income status toward aspirations of high-income status by 2050, while examining the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and the prevalence of the informal sector.

This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 2019 to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) platform. It analyzes demographic shifts, economic growth, poverty trends, and energy transitions, projecting a region with significant population growth, increasing urbanization, and a shift toward manufacturing and renewable energy, despite persistent challenges with food insecurity and carbon emissions.

The Demographics and Health Scenario is a research paper that models the potential impact of accelerated fertility decline and health infrastructure improvements across Africa. It outlines a series of ambitious but empirically grounded interventions starting in 2027 to enhance human development and economic growth relative to a 'Current Path' forecast.

This introductory report provides an overview of the East African Community (EAC), detailing its membership, economic profile, and the progress and challenges associated with its regional integration goals.

This report analyzes the impact of various sectoral scenarios on Burundi's economy, poverty levels, and carbon emissions from 2019 to 2043. It finds that while all scenarios improve GDP per capita over the 'Current Path', the Agriculture and Governance scenarios are most effective at reducing extreme poverty, whereas the full implementation of the AfCFTA could potentially increase poverty if not supported by complementary domestic policies.

The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), established in 1983 and revised in 2019, comprises 11 member states in Central Africa. While its mandate expanded in 1998 to include peace and security alongside economic cooperation, the region continues to face challenges including low regional integration, currency diversity, and significant economic disparities, with member states ranging from low-income to nominally upper-middle-income.

The report forecasts that a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' would nearly double sub-Saharan Africa's economy by 2043 compared to the current path, increasing GDP per capita to US$9,798 and significantly reducing extreme poverty to 7.3%. While services and manufacturing are expected to drive the most GDP growth, the scenario also predicts an increase in carbon emissions to 892 million tons by 2043.

This report analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), integrating 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast GDP per capita, poverty levels, and carbon emissions by 2043. It highlights the synergistic effects of multi-sectoral reform, projecting significant economic growth and poverty reduction, while noting an inevitable increase in carbon emissions.

This research paper provides a comprehensive geographic, political, and socio-economic introduction to Africa, detailing its physical landscape, colonial history, administrative structures, and immense cultural and linguistic diversity.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies compares Burundi's economic and social trajectory under a 'Current Path' versus a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The Combined scenario, which integrates eight sectoral pushes, projects significant growth in GDP, a reduction in extreme poverty, and structural economic transformation by 2043, albeit with an increase in carbon emissions.

This report details a series of scenario interventions for Burundi's development, utilizing the IFs v7.84 model to project outcomes across governance, health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, and trade. It compares potential improvements in Burundi against historical benchmarks from other African nations and forecasts Burundi's relative standing among low-income African peers by 2043.

This conclusion section of the 'Burundi Development Futures: Geographic Futures' report evaluates Burundi's development trajectory, noting that while progress has been made since the 2000 Arusha Peace Agreement, the country remains hindered by political fragility, poor infrastructure, and low agricultural productivity. The report argues that Burundi is unlikely to meet many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 on its current path and recommends a coordinated policy push across governance, agriculture, human capital, infrastructure, and economic diversification to achieve shared prosperity.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the energy access gap in Africa and the potential for 'leapfrogging' traditional fossil-fuel grids in favor of decentralized renewable energy systems, specifically solar-based mini-grids and off-grid solutions.

The Global Resilience Partnership (GRP) has issued guidelines for its May 2026 Innovation Challenges, a call for proposals seeking transformative resilience solutions from entrepreneurs and organisations in the Global South. The initiative offers selected winners up to US$50,000 in funding and a comprehensive support package including mentoring, a leadership academy, and communications assistance to scale innovations that address climate and environmental risks.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines gender discrimination within the family sphere in Africa, focusing on child marriage, the unequal distribution of unpaid care and domestic work, and disparities in divorce and inheritance rights.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of an 'Education scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it to a 'Current Path' forecast. The document argues that increased investment in education acts as a multiplier for economic growth, reducing extreme poverty and improving health outcomes across the continent.

This research paper analyzes the potential economic and social impacts of reducing gender gaps in education and labor force participation across Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender scenario' against a 'Current Path' forecast, finding that aggressive reductions in gender inequality would significantly increase GDP, raise GDP per capita, reduce extreme poverty, and improve child health and human development indices across the continent.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic impact of achieving full gender parity in Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender Equality scenario' against a 'Current Path' and a 'Gender scenario', focusing on GDP growth, per capita income, and poverty reduction across different African regions and income levels.

This research paper presents an 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa, modeling the potential impact of an agricultural revolution through eight specific interventions using the IFs forecasting platform. The scenario aims to address low productivity, climate vulnerability, and food insecurity to stimulate rural economic transformation and diversification.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of various global carbon tax scenarios on Africa's energy transition and economic future, specifically highlighting the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario.