Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators

This report analyzes the impact of various sectoral scenarios on Burundi's economy, poverty levels, and carbon emissions from 2019 to 2043. It finds that while all scenarios improve GDP per capita over the 'Current Path', the Agriculture and Governance scenarios are most effective at reducing extreme poverty, whereas the full implementation of the AfCFTA could potentially increase poverty if not supported by complementary domestic policies.

• Burundi had the lowest GDP per capita in Africa in 2019 at US$655 (PPP exchange rate, US$ 2017). Under the 'Current Path', this is projected to reach US$1,027 by 2043, though it would remain the lowest in Africa.
• Different sectoral scenarios offer varying improvements to GDP per capita by 2043 compared to the Current Path: the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario provides the highest increase (to US$1,169), followed by Governance (US$1,155) and Agriculture (US$1,151). The Education scenario has the smallest impact, increasing GDP per capita by only US$16.
• Extreme poverty is endemic in Burundi; in 2019, 74.6% of the population lived below the US$1.90 per day international poverty line, the third-highest rate globally. This rate rose to 75.8% in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Poverty is significantly more concentrated in rural areas, where it is over three times higher than in the capital, Bujumbura.
• The Agriculture and Governance scenarios are the most effective at reducing extreme poverty by 2043. The Agriculture scenario would reduce the poverty rate to 52.9% (11.8 million people), while the Governance scenario would reduce it to 54.7%.
• Full implementation of the AfCFTA may lead to non-inclusive growth in Burundi. While it may increase GDP per capita by US$118 by 2043, the poverty rate in this scenario is projected to rise to 75.8% by 2043, which is nearly 15 percentage points above the Current Path.
• Environmental impacts vary by scenario; by 2043, the AfCFTA and Agriculture scenarios are projected to result in the highest carbon emissions at 1.5 million tons. The Demographics and Health scenario is expected to result in lower emissions than the Current Path.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Jobarteh, M. (2026). Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=03-impact-of-sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Mustapha Jobarteh. Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=03-impact-of-sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Jobarteh |first2=Mustapha |title=Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=03-impact-of-sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026burundi, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=03-impact-of-sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }