Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators

The report analyzes multiple development scenarios for Burundi, finding that while all scenarios improve GDP per capita over the 'Current Path', the Agriculture and Governance scenarios are most effective at reducing extreme poverty. It highlights a critical risk where the full implementation of the AfCFTA could potentially increase poverty to 75.8% by 2043 if not supported by complementary domestic policies. Environmental trade-offs are noted, as agricultural modernization and trade scenarios are projected to result in the highest carbon emissions by 2043.

• Burundi had the lowest GDP per capita in Africa in 2019 at US$655 (PPP). Under the 'Current Path', this is projected to reach US$1,027 by 2043, though it would remain the lowest on the continent.
• The 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario is projected to yield the highest GDP per capita by 2043 at US$1,169, which is US$142 above the Current Path. In the short to medium term, however, the Agriculture scenario is the most viable for improving living standards until 2038.
• Extreme poverty is endemic in Burundi, with 74.6% of the population living below the US$1.90 per day line in 2019, rising to 75.8% in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Poverty is significantly more concentrated in rural areas, where it is over three times higher than in the capital, Bujumbura.
• The Agriculture and Governance scenarios are the most effective at reducing extreme poverty by 2043. The Agriculture scenario would reduce the poverty rate to 52.9% (11.8 million people), while the Governance scenario would reduce it to 54.7%.
• Full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) may not be inclusive; the poverty rate in this scenario is projected to rise to 75.8% by 2043, nearly 15 percentage points above the Current Path, potentially due to layoffs in import-competing sectors.
• Economic growth and poverty reduction efforts may increase environmental degradation. By 2043, the AfCFTA and Agriculture scenarios are projected to result in the highest carbon emissions at 1.5 million tons.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Jobarteh, M. (2026). Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=03-impact-of-sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Mustapha Jobarteh. Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=03-impact-of-sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Jobarteh |first2=Mustapha |title=Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=03-impact-of-sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026burundi, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=03-impact-of-sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }