Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies compares Burundi's economic and social trajectory under a 'Current Path' versus a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The Combined scenario, which integrates eight sectoral pushes, projects significant growth in GDP, a reduction in extreme poverty, and structural economic transformation by 2043, albeit with an increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects a substantial increase in Burundi's GDP, growing from US$2.7 billion in 2019 to US$17.2 billion by 2043. This represents a 537% increase, which is significantly higher than the 185.2% increase projected under the Current Path, resulting in a GDP that is US$9.5 billion larger by 2043.
• The Combined scenario is expected to significantly improve living standards and reduce extreme poverty. By 2043, the extreme poverty rate (at the US$1.90 threshold) is projected to drop to approximately 12.4% (2.5 million people), compared to 61% (13.7 million people) on the Current Path, representing 11.2 million fewer poor people.
• Implementing the Combined scenario would accelerate structural economic transformation. The manufacturing sector's share of GDP is projected to rise from 16% in 2019 to 26% in 2043, while the agriculture sector's share is expected to decline from 31% in 2019 to 16% in 2043. The service sector would remain dominant, contributing 50% to GDP in 2043.
• The Combined scenario is projected to lower income inequality more effectively than the Current Path. While the Current Path projects a Gini coefficient of 0.34 by 2043, the Combined scenario projects a Gini coefficient of 0.29.
• Rapid economic growth under the Combined scenario will lead to higher carbon emissions. Emissions are projected to increase from 0.2 million tons of carbon in 2019 to 2 million tons by 2043, a 900% increase, which is 0.7 million tons higher than the Current Path projection for the same year.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Jobarteh, M. (2026). Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=04-combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Mustapha Jobarteh. Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=04-combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Jobarteh |first2=Mustapha |title=Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=04-combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026burundi, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=04-combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }