Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario

The document models the potential for Burundi to achieve significant growth and poverty reduction through a combined policy push across sectors like governance, health, and agriculture. While the 'Combined scenario' predicts a dramatic increase in GDP and a sharp decline in extreme poverty by 2043, it also forecasts a higher increase in carbon emissions compared to the current path.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would lead to a dramatic expansion of Burundi's economy, with GDP projected to grow from US$2.7 billion in 2019 to US$17.2 billion by 2043. This represents a 537% increase, which is significantly higher than the 185.2% increase projected on the Current Path, resulting in a GDP that is US$9.5 billion larger than the Current Path in 2043.
• Implementing the Combined scenario is projected to significantly reduce extreme poverty in Burundi. By 2043, the extreme poverty rate (at the US$1.90 threshold) is expected to drop to roughly 12.4% (2.5 million people), compared to 61% (13.7 million people) on the Current Path, representing 11.2 million fewer poor people.
• The Combined scenario would accelerate structural transformation in Burundi's economy. By 2043, the manufacturing sector's share of GDP would increase from 16% in 2019 to 26%, while the agriculture sector's share would decline from 31% in 2019 to 16%. The service sector would remain dominant, contributing 50% of GDP in 2043.
• The Combined scenario is expected to improve living standards and social indicators. GDP per capita in 2043 would be US$1,909, which is US$883 more than the Current Path. Life expectancy at birth would reach 69.5 years by 2043, and the Gini coefficient for income inequality would drop to 0.29, compared to a projected 0.34 on the Current Path.
• Rapid economic growth under the Combined scenario would lead to higher carbon emissions than the Current Path. Emissions are projected to increase from 0.2 million tons of carbon in 2019 to 2 million tons by 2043, a 900% increase, which is 0.7 million tons higher than the Current Path's projection.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Jobarteh, M. (2026). Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=04-combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Mustapha Jobarteh. Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=04-combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Jobarteh |first2=Mustapha |title=Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=04-combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026burundi, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=04-combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }