BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report details a series of scenario interventions for Burundi's development, utilizing the IFs v7.84 model to project outcomes across governance, health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, and trade. It compares potential improvements in Burundi against historical benchmarks from other African nations and forecasts Burundi's relative standing among low-income African peers by 2043.

• Under the Governance scenario, interventions are projected to improve democracy in Burundi by 35% above the Current Path forecast by 2043, reaching a score of 14.3. Government effectiveness is expected to increase by 70% between 2024 and 2033, potentially ranking Burundi second among low-income African countries, behind only Rwanda.
• The Demographics and Health scenario projects significant reductions in mortality: maternal mortality is expected to drop by 53.6% and under-five mortality by 48.7% between 2024 and 2033. Additionally, deaths from AIDS are projected to decrease by 60% in the same period.
• Education interventions aim to increase vocational enrolment in lower secondary schools by 90% and improve the upper secondary vocational training share by 17.3% between 2024 and 2033. The scenario also projects a 70% improvement in the tertiary graduation rate.
• Agricultural interventions are forecast to improve yields by 90% between 2024 and 2033, which would leave only Malawi with higher yields per hectare among low-income African countries by 2043. Crop loss is projected to be reduced by 30% and food waste by 25% in the same period.
• The Manufacturing scenario projects a 128% increase in the manufacturing investment share of GDP between 2024 and 2033. It also forecasts improvements in labour participation, with female participation increasing by 16.4% and male participation by 8.9% between 2024 and 2033.
• Infrastructure and leapfrogging interventions project that urban electricity access will improve by 21% between 2024 and 2033, reaching 96% of the population by 2043. Rural electricity access is projected to increase by 224% by 2033, though Burundi is still forecast to have the lowest rural access among its income peers in Africa by 2043.
• Under the AfCFTA scenario, services exports are projected to increase by 294% between 2024 and 2033, potentially giving Burundi the highest services export share among low-income African countries by 2043. Conversely, the agricultural export share of GDP is projected to decline by 85% in the same period.
• External financial flow interventions project a 140% rise in FDI inflow to Burundi between 2024 and 2033. Foreign aid receipts are projected to improve slightly by 3% between 2024 and 2033, with Burundi expected to have the third largest aid receipt as a percentage of GDP in low-income Africa by 2043.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Jobarteh, M. (2026). BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=06-scenario-interventions

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Mustapha Jobarteh. BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=06-scenario-interventions.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Jobarteh |first2=Mustapha |title=BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=06-scenario-interventions |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026burundi, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=06-scenario-interventions}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }