BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report details specific multipliers and targets for Burundi across several development scenarios. Key interventions include improving government effectiveness, reducing child and maternal mortality, increasing vocational training, boosting agricultural yields, and expanding renewable energy and ICT infrastructure. The document compares these projected outcomes against averages for low-income African countries and historical benchmarks from other African nations.

• Under the Governance scenario, interventions are projected to increase government effectiveness by 70% between 2024 and 2033, which would place Burundi second among low-income African countries, trailing only Rwanda.
• The Demographics and Health scenario targets significant mortality reductions, including a 53.6% decrease in the maternal mortality rate and a 48.7% reduction in under-five mortality between 2024 and 2033.
• Education interventions aim to increase vocational enrolment in lower secondary schools by 90% and improve upper secondary vocational training by 17.3% between 2024 and 2033.
• The Agriculture scenario projects a 90% improvement in agricultural yield between 2024 and 2033, which would make Burundi the second-highest yield producer per hectare among low-income African countries by 2043, behind only Malawi.
• Infrastructure and leapfrogging interventions include increasing other renewable energy production from zero in 2024 to 2 million barrels by 2033 and improving urban electricity access by 21% between 2024 and 2033.
• The AfCFTA scenario projects that services exports in Burundi will increase by 294% between 2024 and 2033, potentially giving the country the highest services export share among low-income African countries by 2043.
• External financial flow interventions project a 140% rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows between 2024 and 2033, which would result in Burundi receiving more FDI as a share of GDP than Burkina Faso, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic by 2043.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Jobarteh, M. (2026). BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=06-scenario-interventions

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Mustapha Jobarteh. BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=06-scenario-interventions.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Jobarteh |first2=Mustapha |title=BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=06-scenario-interventions |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026burundi, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BI&topic=06-scenario-interventions}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }