Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path

The report forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.962 billion by 2043, with a significant shift toward urbanization. While regional GDP is projected to increase substantially, reaching between US$6.2 trillion and US$6.7 trillion, GDP per capita growth is tempered by rapid population increases. The region is expected to face increasing food insecurity as agricultural demand outstrips production. Energy production is projected to shift toward renewables, yet total carbon emissions are forecast to rise by over 146% by 2043, with Nigeria expected to overtake South Africa as the region's largest emitter.

• The population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow from 1.106 billion in 2019 to 1.962 billion by 2043, a 77.38% increase. The median age is expected to rise from 18.74 in 2019 to 22.82 years in 2043, driven by better healthcare and falling fertility rates.
• Urbanization is accelerating; the urban population is forecast to more than double from 449 million in 2019 to 998 million by 2043. By 2043, 50.5% of the population will live in urban areas, and the number of predominantly rural countries in the region will drop from 31 to 22.
• Regional GDP is forecast to increase to between US$6,221.7 billion and US$6,760.2 billion by 2043. While Nigeria and South Africa accounted for 49% of GDP in 2019, their combined share is expected to drop to between 40% and 43% by 2043 as Ethiopia, Angola, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya experience rapid growth.
• The manufacturing sector is projected to overtake the agriculture sector in its contribution to GDP starting in 2025. By 2043, manufacturing will contribute 20.06% to GDP, while agriculture's share will shrink to 6.3% (or 7.3% according to a different section of the text).
• Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to become increasingly food insecure. The gap between agricultural demand and production, which was 70.3 million metric tons in 2019, is forecast to increase to 572 million metric tons by 2043.
• Extreme poverty (at US$1.90 per day) is forecast to decline from a rate of 40.9% in 2019 to 23.7% in 2043, with the number of extremely poor people decreasing from 441.9 million to 395.2 million.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase by more than 146%, rising from 246 million metric tons in 2019 to 606 million tons in 2043. Nigeria is expected to overtake South Africa as the region's largest emitter by 2043.
• Energy production is expected to shift from traditional sources like oil and coal toward renewables such as hydro, wind, and solar. In 2019, oil, coal, and gas dominated production, with hydro and other renewables contributing only 6.48%.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=current-path

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026subsaharan, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }