Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path

This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 2019 to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) platform. It analyzes demographic shifts, economic growth, poverty trends, and energy transitions, projecting a region with significant population growth, increasing urbanization, and a shift toward manufacturing and renewable energy, despite persistent challenges with food insecurity and carbon emissions.

• The population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow from 1.106 billion in 2019 to 1.962 billion by 2043, a 77.38% increase. While the median age was 18.74 in 2019, it is expected to rise to 22.82 years by 2043 as fertility rates decline to 3.3 births per fertile woman and healthcare improves.
• Urbanization is increasing rapidly; the urban population is expected to more than double from 449 million in 2019 to 998 million in 2043. By 2043, 50.5% of the population will live in urban areas, meaning only 22 of the 48 countries in the region will remain predominantly rural.
• The region's GDP is forecast to increase to US$6,221.7 billion (or US$6,760.2 billion according to a different section of the text) by 2043. While Nigeria and South Africa constituted 49% of the GDP in 2019, their combined share is expected to drop to between 40% and 43% by 2043 due to rapid growth in Ethiopia, Angola, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya.
• The economic structure is shifting; the manufacturing sector is projected to overtake the agriculture sector in its contribution to GDP starting in 2025. By 2043, manufacturing will contribute 20.06% of GDP, while agriculture's share will shrink to 6.3% (or 7.3% according to another section).
• Food insecurity is expected to worsen as agricultural demand exceeds production. The gap between demand and production is projected to increase from 70.3 million metric tons in 2019 to 572 million metric tons by 2043, driven by poor domestic production and changing dietary preferences.
• Extreme poverty (measured at US$1.90 per day) is expected to decline in rate from 40.9% in 2019 to 23.7% in 2043, although the absolute number of extremely poor people will only decrease from 441.9 million to 395.2 million due to high population growth.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase by more than 146%, rising from 246 million metric tons in 2019 to 606 million tons in 2043. Nigeria is expected to overtake South Africa as the region's largest emitter. The region's contribution to global emissions will rise from 2.6% in 2019 to 6.2% in 2043.
• Energy production is shifting from traditional sources toward renewables. In 2019, oil (52.98%), coal (27.01%), and gas (13.53%) dominated, while hydro and other renewables combined contributed only 6.48%. Total energy production is expected to increase by 3.483 billion BBOE by 2043.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=current-path

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026subsaharan, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }