SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report forecasts that a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' would nearly double sub-Saharan Africa's economy by 2043 compared to the current path, increasing GDP per capita to US$9,798 and significantly reducing extreme poverty to 7.3%. While services and manufacturing are expected to drive the most GDP growth, the scenario also predicts an increase in carbon emissions to 892 million tons by 2043.

• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, sub-Saharan Africa's average GDP per capita is forecast to reach US$9,798 by 2043, which is 58% higher than the Current Path forecast of US$5,980 for the same year. This represents an increase from the 2019 average of US$3,948.
• The drivers of GDP per capita growth shift over time: by 2033, the Agriculture scenario is the largest contributor, followed by Leapfrogging, Manufacturing/Transfers, and Free Trade. By 2043, Free Trade becomes the largest contributor, followed by Leapfrogging, Manufacturing/Transfers, and Agriculture.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is forecast to significantly reduce extreme poverty (at the US$1.90 line) to 7.3% by 2043, which is 299.3 million fewer people in poverty than the Current Path. The most significant reductions relative to the Current Path are expected in Madagascar (50 percentage points) and Burundi (40 percentage points), while Mauritius will see a minimal reduction of 0.021 percentage points.
• The total economy of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow to US$12,295.2 billion by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, nearly double the Current Path forecast of US$6,760.2 billion. The largest value increases to GDP are expected in services (US$3,693 billion) and manufacturing (US$905.8 billion), while the energy sector will see the smallest increase (US$57.1 billion).
• Carbon emissions in sub-Saharan Africa are forecast to increase to 892 million tons in 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, compared to 650 million tons in the Current Path. In 2019, emissions were 256 million tons, with South Africa (132 million), Nigeria (39 million), and Angola (12 million) as the top emitters; South Africa accounted for over half of the region's emissions that year.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026subsaharan, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }