SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The document forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase sub-Saharan Africa's GDP per capita to US$9,798 by 2043, compared to US$5,980 in the Current Path. It predicts a substantial reduction in extreme poverty to 7.3% and a nearly doubled total economy of US$12,295.2 billion. However, this growth is associated with higher carbon emissions, reaching 892 million tons by 2043.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to increase sub-Saharan Africa's average GDP per capita to US$9,798 by 2043, representing a 58% increase over the Current Path forecast of US$5,980.
• The impact of the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario on GDP per capita varies by country; by 2043, Eswatini is expected to benefit the most with an addition of US$8,432 above the Current Path, while Burundi will benefit the least with an addition of less than US$1,000.
• Extreme poverty (at the US$1.90 line) in sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to decline to 7.3% under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which would result in 299.3 million fewer people in poverty compared to the Current Path by 2043. The most significant reductions in the poverty rate are expected in Madagascar (50 percentage points) and Burundi (40 percentage points).
• The total economy of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to reach US$12,295.2 billion by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, nearly double the Current Path forecast of US$6,760.2 billion. The services sector is expected to provide the largest value increase to GDP at US$3,693 billion, while the energy sector will provide the smallest increase at US$57.1 billion.
• Carbon emissions in sub-Saharan Africa are projected to increase under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, reaching 892 million tons by 2043, compared to 650 million tons in the Current Path. In 2019, South Africa was the largest emitter, contributing more than half of the region's 256 million tons of carbon.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026subsaharan, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }