BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Benin, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic and social development by 2043. The scenario predicts significant growth in GDP and a reduction in poverty compared to a 'Current Path' forecast, though it also projects a substantial increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase Benin's GDP per capita to US$7,421 by 2043. This represents an additional increase of US$2,736 compared to the Current Path forecast, although it remains below the projected 2063 average of US$9,142 for lower middle-income countries in Africa.
• Among the sectoral components of the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the Free Trade scenario is estimated to have the greatest impact on GDP per capita by 2043, followed by Leapfrogging and Manufacturing/Transfers. The Health/WaSH scenario is projected to have the least impact. Additionally, a 'synergistic effect' from the integration of all scenarios is estimated to contribute approximately US$476 to GDP per capita in 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty in Benin. By 2043, 6.4 million people (31.8% of the population) are expected to live below the poverty line of US$3.20 per day, meaning 4.6 million more people would be lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path. This poverty rate is lower than the 38.3% average projected for lower middle-income African countries by 2043.
• By 2043, the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects Benin's total GDP (MER) to reach US$117.2 billion, nearly doubling the Current Path forecast of US$66.3 billion. The economy is expected to undergo structural transformation: while the service sector will add US$28 billion to GDP and manufacturing will increase its GDP contribution by 1.1 percentage points over the Current Path, agriculture's percentage contribution to GDP is projected to decline by 1.1 percentage points.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is associated with high environmental costs. Total carbon emissions in Benin, which were 2.2 million tons in 2019, are projected to rise to 10.1 million tons by 2043, significantly higher than the 7.2 million tons estimated in the Current Path forecast.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026benin, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }