BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report projects that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase Benin's GDP per capita to US$7,421 and nearly double the overall economy to US$117.2 billion by 2043. While this path would lift an additional 4.6 million people out of extreme poverty and drive structural transformation toward services and manufacturing, it is also projected to increase carbon emissions to 10.1 million tons, necessitating an accelerated energy transition to mitigate environmental degradation.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase Benin's GDP per capita to US$7,421 by 2043, which is US$2,736 higher than the Current Path forecast. The Free Trade and Leapfrogging scenarios are identified as having the greatest potential to improve economic and human development, while Health/WaSH has the least impact.
• The scenario is expected to significantly reduce poverty, with 6.4 million people (31.8% of the population) living below the US$3.20 per day poverty line by 2043. This represents an additional 4.6 million people lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path.
• Benin's economy is projected to undergo structural transformation by 2043, with the service, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors becoming the largest contributors to GDP. Manufacturing's contribution is expected to be 1.1 percentage points of GDP above the Current Path, while agriculture's percentage contribution to GDP will decline by 1.1 percentage points.
• The overall size of the economy (GDP MER) is projected to almost double, reaching US$117.2 billion by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast of US$66.3 billion.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario comes with high environmental costs, as total carbon emissions are projected to rise from 2.2 million tons in 2019 to 10.1 million tons by 2043, exceeding the Current Path estimate of 7.2 million tons.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026benin, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }