Cabo Verde Development Futures

The report projects that Cape Verde will experience significant urbanisation and GDP per capita growth by 2043, though it remains highly dependent on food imports and tourism. While various sectoral interventions—particularly free trade and manufacturing—could further boost GDP and reduce poverty, they are also projected to increase carbon emissions. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests a potential GDP increase to US$8.7 billion and a reduction of extreme poverty to 3.6% of the population by 2043.

• Under the Current Path forecast for 2043, Cape Verde is projected to have an urban population of 73.5%, a GDP per capita of US$10,839, and a poverty rate of 11.5% (80,000 people) based on the US$3.20 poverty line.
• Energy production in 2043 is expected to shift, with coal's share decreasing to 35% and renewable energies constituting 50% of total production.
• Cape Verde faces significant food security challenges due to high import dependency; in the Agriculture scenario, the nation will still be a net importer with a deficit of 36.4% of total agricultural demand by 2043.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is projected to have the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita (reaching US$12,034 by 2043) and the greatest increase in carbon emissions (adding 0.41 million tons by 2043).
• The Leapfrogging scenario is projected to increase mobile broadband subscriptions to 153.2 per 100 people and enable electricity access for 97% of the population by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral scenarios, would increase the economy's size to US$8.7 billion and reduce the number of people living below the poverty line to 23,000 (3.6% of the population) by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to result in higher carbon emissions (0.47 million tons by 2043) compared to the Current Path forecast (0.38 million tons).

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Cabo Verde Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Cabo Verde Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Cabo Verde Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026cabo, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Cabo Verde Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }