ISS African Futures

This report provides development forecasts for Cape Verde up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' trajectory with various sectoral scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, energy production, and the potential impacts of improvements in stability, health, education, and trade.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Cape Verde is expected to experience rapid urbanisation, with 73.5% of the population residing in urban areas by 2043. GDP per capita is projected to reach US$10,839 in the same year, while the number of people living below the US$3.20 poverty line is expected to decrease to 80,000 (11.5% of the population).
• Cape Verde's energy production is currently dominated by coal, which constituted 60% of total energy produced in 2019. By 2043, the share of coal is projected to decline to 35%, while other renewable energies are expected to constitute 50% of total energy production.
• The country faces significant food security challenges due to a high dependency on imports. In 2019, net agricultural imports were 51.7% of agricultural demand, and this is projected to grow to 52.9% by 2043 under the Current Path. Even in a positive Agriculture scenario, the nation will remain a net importer with a deficit of 36.4% of total agricultural demand by 2043.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is projected to have the most significant positive impact on economic growth, increasing GDP per capita to US$12,034 by 2043 and reducing the poverty rate to 8.5%. However, it may worsen the trade balance compared to the Current Path, with a projected trade deficit of 14.4% of GDP in 2043.
• The Leapfrogging scenario focuses on technology and energy access, projecting that 97% of the population will have access to electricity by 2043. It also forecasts an increase in mobile broadband subscriptions to 153.2 per 100 people by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates all 11 sectoral improvements, projects a significant economic expansion. By 2043, the economy is estimated to grow to US$8.7 billion (compared to US$5.2 billion on the Current Path), GDP per capita would increase by US$4,824, and the number of people living below the poverty line would drop to 23,000 (3.6% of the population).
• Carbon emissions in Cape Verde are currently very low but are projected to increase across all scenarios. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to result in the highest emissions, reaching 0.47 million tons by 2043, compared to 0.38 million tons on the Current Path.
• Cape Verde has already achieved a demographic dividend, with a working-age population to dependants ratio of 1.99 in 2019, well above the 1.7 threshold. This ratio is projected to reach 2.09 by 2043 under both the Current Path and Demographic scenarios.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }