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The document outlines the purpose and scope of a special report on Tunisia's potential development pathways to 2040. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform, the analysis establishes a 'Current Path' and compares it against three policy-driven scenarios: growth, sustainability and equality, and leapfrogging. The report emphasizes that governance reform is a necessary foundation for all three scenarios. For comparative analysis, Tunisia is categorized as a lower middle-income economy, and the report utilizes global lower middle-income groups and regions such as sub-Saharan Africa for benchmarking.

The report assesses Algeria's development trajectory to 2040, identifying governance and the resulting economic policy framework as the primary drivers of the country's challenges. It utilizes the International Futures modelling platform to contrast a 'Current Path' forecast with a prospective 'Algerian Dream' scenario characterized by a democratic government and equitable prosperity. For comparative analysis, the report benchmarks Algeria against other lower middle-income economies in Africa and global upper middle-income groups.

The report highlights that while projected warming has decreased from 4°C in 2015 to 2.6°C today, this level of warming still results in significantly more frequent and intense heat days. It notes that extreme heat waves have become more likely since 2015, with some events now 10 times more likely. Despite the expansion of early warning systems, the report argues that adaptation finance is insufficient to keep pace with the rising costs of inaction on extreme heat.

The report analyzes the potential for California to meet its 2045 CDR target of 75 MMT CO2e by diversifying its portfolio with Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) systems. Using seven scenarios based on cost and social acceptance, the study finds that BiCRS can remove between 13 and 75 MMT CO2e annually. Scenarios utilizing high biomass availability estimates show that BiCRS alone could meet the state's target, potentially reducing costs and increasing bioenergy and job production by up to 10 times compared to the DAC-heavy 2022 Scoping Plan. However, scenarios with limited forest biomass availability fail to meet the target. The report highlights a trade-off between optimizing biomass for CDR versus sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and recommends expanding the state's CDR portfolio beyond hydrogen-based BECCS.

The report explores the potential of Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) to help California meet its 2045 CDR target of 75 MMT CO2e. By modeling seven scenarios based on cost and social acceptance, the analysis finds that BiCRS could potentially meet the entire target under high biomass availability estimates without competing with food production. The report highlights that while lower-cost pathways rely on established technologies like combustion with CCS, higher social acceptance pathways require advanced technologies such as pyrolysis and gasification. BiCRS is projected to generate significantly more bioenergy and jobs than the current direct air capture (DAC)-focused Scoping Plan.

Between 2019 and 2023, Indonesia's power sector saw total reported investments of USD 38.02 billion, with fossil fuels (FF) dominating at 62% of the share. The report highlights a significant gap in 'unreported' investment in captive coal-fired power plants (CFPPs), estimated at USD 10.63 billion. While renewable energy (RE) investment reached USD 8.85 billion, it remains concentrated in baseload sources like hydropower and geothermal. Private international financial institutions are the primary drivers of fossil fuel investment, whereas RE is increasingly supported by domestic private sources. Analysis of PLN reveals that coal plants account for 46% of annual operating costs, and PLN-owned solar plants suffer from severe inefficiency with a capacity factor of only 4% compared to a 16% benchmark.

The report analyzes Africa's projected development through 2043, contrasting a baseline 'Current Path' of steady but insufficient growth with a 'Combined scenario' of integrated reforms. While the Current Path shows modest poverty reduction and economic growth, the Combined scenario demonstrates transformative potential, including a GDP (MER) of US$8.9 trillion and the removal of 199 million additional people from extreme poverty. The analysis identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), governance reform, and human capital investment as the three most decisive drivers for accelerating this transformation.

The analysis compares four scenarios for Africa's emissions: Business-as-usual (BAU), Net-zero by 2050 (NZ50), Net-zero by 2070 (NZ70), and Net-zero by 2100 (NZ100). While all net-zero pathways see renewables become the dominant energy source and a sharp fall in fossil fuel reliance, the timing of the transition creates significant trade-offs. The NZ50 scenario achieves the fastest emissions decline, reaching -0.33 GtCO₂/yr by 2050, but incurs the highest marginal abatement cost (averaging $78 per ton of CO₂) and causes the most disruption to food systems, including a 31% contraction in cropland and a near doubling of staple food prices. All net-zero scenarios rely on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which shifts water demand from agriculture to the energy sector. Regional challenges vary, with Western Africa facing steep decarbonization due to oil and gas reliance, and Southern Africa managing a coal-dependent system.

The document analyzes the surging demand for critical minerals driven by the energy transition, the environmental impacts of mining, and the strategic trade policies developing countries can employ to add value to their mineral resources while ensuring climate resilience.

The report examines economic and societal trends affecting Germany's material prosperity and climate protection, utilizing mini-scenarios to 2040 to identify necessary actions for policymakers and experts.

The document details the methodology used to quantify investment risks (governance, financing, physical climate, market, infrastructure, and nature) and attributes (horizon, ticket size, and return) for livestock in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It establishes a scoring system to match these risks with the risk tolerances of various public and private investors, while modeling how different finance and policy strategies (IFS and IFPS) could improve investor suitability. The analysis distinguishes between small-scale farms (2-10 hectares) and large-scale commercial farms (10+ hectares) across Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and the rest of LAC, noting that small farms are primarily served by public and concessional finance, whereas large farms have better access to commercial private finance.

The report finds that current EU ETS cap trajectories are more ambitious than required by most climate neutrality scenarios, potentially leading to severe allowance shortages and price spikes after 2035. It evaluates several reform options to balance supply and demand, including adjusting the linear reduction factor (LRF), reforming the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), and integrating carbon dioxide removals (CDRs). The authors warn against the inclusion of Article 6 international credits due to risks to environmental integrity and the potential for market collapse. Recommended solutions include a combination of MSR replenishment and technological CDRs or a phased reduction of the LRF post-2035.

The report finds that Canada is highly exposed to economic risks due to overinvestment in oil and gas relative to the global energy transition. Using IEA demand scenarios, it estimates that between 5% (Stated Policies Scenario) and 66% (Net Zero Emissions scenario) of projected capital investment from 2025 to 2040 could be stranded. The analysis indicates that Canadian oil is among the world's most expensive to produce, making it particularly vulnerable to price drops. The report argues that restricting the development of new fields and engaging in international diplomacy to reduce global supply could protect the industry's overall value and increase government revenues by preventing oversupply and price deflation. It also notes that U.S. tariffs on energy imports would likely amplify these risks by making Canadian production less competitive.

The analysis finds that VGI, particularly bidirectional charging (V2G), can generate annual system savings between $1.8 billion and $11.7 billion by 2045. These savings primarily stem from reduced requirements for electricity delivery infrastructure and utility-scale storage. The report recommends that California mandate bidirectional charging capabilities in new EVs and update battery warranties to cover discharging to encourage widespread adoption.

The report uses the SATIMGE modelling framework to compare a least-cost Reference Case against various Policy Scenarios and an 'Ideal Energy Scenario' for South Africa. The Ideal Energy Scenario targets net zero CO2 by 2050 with a cumulative GHG limit of 8 Gt CO2-eq, featuring a systemic shift to 80% public transport, expanded social provisioning for low-income households (including 6.5 million solar water heaters), and a domestic clean energy manufacturing sector with 85% local content. Results indicate that while total system investment costs increase, an affordable and socially inclusive transition is possible, with energy sector employment increasing due to localisation measures, despite a slight relative decline in economy-wide employment compared to the Reference Case.

The report critiques the reliance on Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for power system planning, noting that while useful for tracking historical technology costs, it fails to account for system-wide needs, generation profiles, and integration costs. It highlights that clean firm technologies can reduce overall system costs despite higher LCOEs. The authors recommend moving toward comprehensive system-level analyses that model temporal and spatial constraints to optimize decarbonization pathways.

The document analyzes how climate change disrupts agricultural yields and trade flows, particularly in developing regions, while contributing significantly to global GHG emissions. It highlights the risks of food insecurity and the potential for trade-related climate measures to marginalize vulnerable economies. The author argues for a comprehensive international cooperation agenda focused on reducing trade tensions, reforming harmful subsidies, facilitating technology transfer, and securing global food stocks to ensure a fair transition to sustainable agriculture.

The report analyzes the rise of international disputes and geopolitical tensions, noting that state-based conflicts reached a historic high of 59 active conflicts in 2023. Utilizing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the document develops three plausible storylines to illustrate how the collapse of globalization, escalating rivalries, and the decline of multilateral institutions could reshape economic landscapes and international relations. These scenarios are intended to help policymakers address vulnerabilities in trade networks and food systems while enhancing resilience against climate risks.

The report argues that the traditional Official Development Assistance (ODA) model is outdated and failing to meet 21st-century challenges. It identifies six key pressures: shifting poverty geographies, rising demands for climate and health financing, fragmentation from new actors, changing flow natures, geopolitical rivalries, and declining public trust. The author contends that incremental tweaks are insufficient and proposes a 'reset' that integrates ODA into a broader Global Public Investment (GPI) framework. This new architecture would distinguish core poverty reduction from global public goods financing, reform governance to include the Global South, and shift the narrative from donor-driven charity to mutual interest. The report outlines five future scenarios for 2040, ranging from 'Incremental Change' to a 'Managed Handover' to non-governmental actors, urging policymakers to proactively shape a transition to avoid a fragmented 'Wild West' of bilateralism.

The document argues that Africa's potential for a demographic dividend depends on accelerating the demographic transition—reducing child mortality and fertility—and converting a larger working-age population into economic growth through job creation and governance. It contrasts the youthful population of Africa with the ageing populations of Europe and the Netherlands, suggesting strategic opportunities for labour mobility and trade. Using the International Futures (ifs) model, the author presents a 'Demographics and Health' scenario where targeted investments in contraceptives, maternal health, and WASH infrastructure lead to a smaller, wealthier, and better-educated population by 2050, reducing extreme poverty by 48 million people.