Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat

The report highlights that while projected warming has decreased from 4°C in 2015 to 2.6°C today, this level of warming still results in significantly more frequent and intense heat days. It notes that extreme heat waves have become more likely since 2015, with some events now 10 times more likely. Despite the expansion of early warning systems, the report argues that adaptation finance is insufficient to keep pace with the rising costs of inaction on extreme heat.

• Projected warming for this century has decreased from approximately 4°C in 2015 to 2.6°C currently, provided that current emissions reduction pledges are fully implemented.
• Warming of 2.6°C would result in 57 additional hot days per year compared to current levels, while 4°C of warming would result in 114 additional hot days per year. Currently, the world experiences 11 more hot days per year due to the 0.3°C of warming that has occurred since 2015.
• Analysis of six case studies indicates that extreme heat waves have increased in likelihood since 2015; three of these events would have been nearly impossible without climate change, and two are approximately 10 times more likely to occur in 2025 than in 2015.
• Although heat early warning systems and action plans have seen worldwide expansion since 2015, progress is hindered by a lack of financing for local heat adaptation, and the costs of inaction are currently outpacing adaptation efforts.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2025). Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/ten-years-of-the-paris-agreement-the-present-and-future-of-extreme-heat/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat. 2025. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/ten-years-of-the-paris-agreement-the-present-and-future-of-extreme-heat/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat |date=16 October 2025 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/ten-years-of-the-paris-agreement-the-present-and-future-of-extreme-heat/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2025ten, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/ten-years-of-the-paris-agreement-the-present-and-future-of-extreme-heat/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }