Exploring Net-Zero Emissions Pathways for Africa Across Different Timelines: An Integrated Assessment Modeling

The analysis compares four scenarios for Africa's emissions: Business-as-usual (BAU), Net-zero by 2050 (NZ50), Net-zero by 2070 (NZ70), and Net-zero by 2100 (NZ100). While all net-zero pathways see renewables become the dominant energy source and a sharp fall in fossil fuel reliance, the timing of the transition creates significant trade-offs. The NZ50 scenario achieves the fastest emissions decline, reaching -0.33 GtCO₂/yr by 2050, but incurs the highest marginal abatement cost (averaging $78 per ton of CO₂) and causes the most disruption to food systems, including a 31% contraction in cropland and a near doubling of staple food prices. All net-zero scenarios rely on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which shifts water demand from agriculture to the energy sector. Regional challenges vary, with Western Africa facing steep decarbonization due to oil and gas reliance, and Southern Africa managing a coal-dependent system.

• Primary energy supply in Africa is projected to increase approximately sixfold by 2100 relative to 2020 levels across both business-as-usual and net-zero scenarios. In the NZ50 scenario, renewables—specifically wind, solar, and hydropower—are expected to account for 59% of primary energy by mid-century.
• Emissions trajectories vary drastically by scenario: the BAU case sees emissions rise from 1.8 GtCO₂ per year in 2020 to 10.4 GtCO₂ by 2100. In contrast, the NZ50 scenario reaches net-negative emissions of -0.33 GtCO₂/yr by 2050, while NZ70 and NZ100 reach net-zero by their respective target dates.
• Rapid decarbonization by 2050 (NZ50) creates severe pressures on food and water resources, including a 31% reduction in cropland and an increase in staple food prices from $0.59/kg (BAU) to $1.16/kg. While agricultural water demand drops by 14.7% in NZ50, energy-sector water use rises to 0.91 km³ per year due to the deployment of BECCS.
• The marginal abatement cost of carbon is highest for the earliest transition; NZ50 averages $78 per ton of CO₂ between 2025 and 2100, which is 7% higher than NZ70 ($73 per ton) and 15% higher than NZ100 ($68 per ton).
• Decarbonization challenges are region-specific: Western Africa is constrained by oil and gas reliance, Southern Africa by coal, and Northern Africa by water stress. Eastern Africa is identified as having the potential to leapfrog fossil fuels due to geothermal and hydro resources.

APA

Dioha, M., Ampah, J. D., & Odarno, L. (2025). Exploring Net-Zero Emissions Pathways for Africa Across Different Timelines: An Integrated Assessment Modeling. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/resource/exploring-net-zero-emissions-pathways-for-africa-across-different-timelines-an-integrated-assessment-modeling/

Chicago

Dioha, Michael, Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, and Lily Odarno. Exploring Net-Zero Emissions Pathways for Africa Across Different Timelines: An Integrated Assessment Modeling. Clean Air Task Force, 2025. https://www.catf.us/resource/exploring-net-zero-emissions-pathways-for-africa-across-different-timelines-an-integrated-assessment-modeling/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dioha |first1=Michael |last2=Ampah |first2=Jeffrey Dankwa |last3=Odarno |first3=Lily |title=Exploring Net-Zero Emissions Pathways for Africa Across Different Timelines: An Integrated Assessment Modeling |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=18 September 2025 |url=https://www.catf.us/resource/exploring-net-zero-emissions-pathways-for-africa-across-different-timelines-an-integrated-assessment-modeling/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dioha2025exploring, author = {Dioha, Michael and Ampah, Jeffrey Dankwa and Odarno, Lily}, title = {{Exploring Net-Zero Emissions Pathways for Africa Across Different Timelines: An Integrated Assessment Modeling}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://www.catf.us/resource/exploring-net-zero-emissions-pathways-for-africa-across-different-timelines-an-integrated-assessment-modeling/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }