Critical Minerals Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development

The document analyzes the surging demand for critical minerals driven by the energy transition, the environmental impacts of mining, and the strategic trade policies developing countries can employ to add value to their mineral resources while ensuring climate resilience.

• Global demand for critical minerals is projected to double or even quadruple by 2040, depending on the stringency of climate action. A significant portion of this increase is driven by the production of batteries and the electrification of personal vehicles.
• The mining sector contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, representing approximately 4% of total global emissions, with aluminium production accounting for 2.8%. Emissions are rising as companies move to lower-grade ores and use more coal for processing.
• China maintains a dominant position in the global processing of critical minerals, refining a large majority of lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and graphite.
• Trade in critical minerals is characterized by low import tariffs but increasing export restrictions. The OECD reports a five-fold increase in export restrictions on critical raw materials since 2009, with 10% of global trade now facing at least one such measure.
• Developing countries face risks from price volatility and the potential for technology substitutes to erode market value, such as LFP batteries which do not require nickel, manganese, or cobalt.
• To support climate-resilient development, developing countries can employ strategies such as promoting downstream industries, investing in infrastructure like the Lobito Corridor, and adopting circularity and recycling frameworks.

APA

Wooders, P., & Lobach, S. (2025). Critical Minerals Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Critical-Minerals-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1777444656

Chicago

Wooders, Peter, and Simon Lobach. Critical Minerals Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2025. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Critical-Minerals-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1777444656.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wooders |first1=Peter |last2=Lobach |first2=Simon |title=Critical Minerals Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=August 2025 |url=https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Critical-Minerals-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1777444656 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wooders2025critical, author = {Wooders, Peter and Lobach, Simon}, title = {{Critical Minerals Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Critical-Minerals-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1777444656}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }