Harnessing and advancing Africa’s future demographic dividend

The document argues that Africa's potential for a demographic dividend depends on accelerating the demographic transition—reducing child mortality and fertility—and converting a larger working-age population into economic growth through job creation and governance. It contrasts the youthful population of Africa with the ageing populations of Europe and the Netherlands, suggesting strategic opportunities for labour mobility and trade. Using the International Futures (ifs) model, the author presents a 'Demographics and Health' scenario where targeted investments in contraceptives, maternal health, and WASH infrastructure lead to a smaller, wealthier, and better-educated population by 2050, reducing extreme poverty by 48 million people.

• Africa is characterised by a significant population momentum compared to other regions; its population is projected to grow from 1.5 billion in 2023 to 2.6 billion by 2050, with a total fertility rate (tfr) declining to 2.8 births per woman.
• The 'first demographic dividend' occurs when the working-age population (15-64) grows more rapidly than the dependent population. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to enter this window of opportunity in 2053 and peak in 2078, whereas the MENA region will peak in 2035.
• Urbanisation in Africa is primarily driven by rural poverty ('push' factors) rather than industrial job opportunities ('pull' factors), leading to a rise in informal settlements and inadequate service delivery. By 2030, six megacities—Cairo, Lagos, Kinshasa, Johannesburg, Luanda, and Dar es Salaam—will each exceed 10 million inhabitants.
• Sub-Saharan Africa faces a 'double burden of disease', managing both persistent infectious diseases and a rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes and hypertension, with the epidemiological transition to NCD-driven mortality expected by 2033.
• A modelled 'Demographics and Health' scenario, involving increased contraceptive use and improved WASH infrastructure, would result in 139 million fewer people in Africa by 2050 and 715 million fewer by 2100 compared to the 'Current Path' forecast.
• The 'Demographics and Health' scenario would increase Africa's average GDP per capita by US$387 by 2050, reduce the number of extremely poor Africans by 48 million, and result in an economy US$143 billion larger than the Current Path forecast.
• The document identifies three distinct demographic phases in Africa: early-transition (e.g., Niger, Chad, Somalia) with high fertility; mid-transition (e.g., Kenya, Ghana, Senegal) with moderate fertility decline; and late/post-transition (e.g., Tunisia, Algeria, South Africa) with near or below replacement-level fertility.
• To harness the demographic dividend, African countries must move beyond health and education to focus on large-scale employment generation, vocational training, and sound governance to avoid a youthful population becoming a liability.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2025). Harnessing and advancing Africa’s future demographic dividend. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/WRR_Harnessing-and-advancing-Africas-future-demographic-dividend.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Harnessing and advancing Africa’s future demographic dividend. Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/WRR_Harnessing-and-advancing-Africas-future-demographic-dividend.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Harnessing and advancing Africa’s future demographic dividend |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2025 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/WRR_Harnessing-and-advancing-Africas-future-demographic-dividend.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2025harnessing, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Harnessing and advancing Africa’s future demographic dividend}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/WRR_Harnessing-and-advancing-Africas-future-demographic-dividend.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }