Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development

The document analyzes how climate change disrupts agricultural yields and trade flows, particularly in developing regions, while contributing significantly to global GHG emissions. It highlights the risks of food insecurity and the potential for trade-related climate measures to marginalize vulnerable economies. The author argues for a comprehensive international cooperation agenda focused on reducing trade tensions, reforming harmful subsidies, facilitating technology transfer, and securing global food stocks to ensure a fair transition to sustainable agriculture.

• Climate change is projected to reduce global food production by 8 percentage points by 2050 compared to a scenario without climate change, with the most severe disruptions expected in Africa and South Asia.
• Climate-induced price increases are expected by 2050 for most commodity groups, with roots and tubers projected to see the highest increase at 37% above 2020 levels; cereals, fruits, and vegetables are projected to rise by over 20%.
• The entire agri-food system contributed 29.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, comprising on-farm emissions (14.3%), agricultural land-use change (5.6%), and pre- and post-production emissions.
• The primary drivers of agricultural emissions in 2022 were carbon dioxide from net forest conversion and methane from ruminant livestock, which together accounted for 53.6% of on-farm and land-use change emissions.
• Developing countries face the risk of being marginalized by fragmented trade-related climate measures, such as the EU's deforestation regulation, due to high compliance costs and limited access to climate financing and technology.
• Global agricultural support is estimated at nearly $540 billion annually, with two-thirds considered price-distorting and environmentally harmful, often through output or input subsidies that increase GHG emissions.

APA

Bellmann, C. (2025). Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Agriculture-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1744702132

Chicago

Bellmann, Christophe. Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2025. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Agriculture-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1744702132.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bellmann |first1=Christophe |title=Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=April 2025 |url=https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Agriculture-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1744702132 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bellmann2025agriculture, author = {Bellmann, Christophe}, title = {{Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Agriculture-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1744702132}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }