Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development

This briefing note by the Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs (TESS) examines the intersection of agricultural trade, climate change, and net-zero pathways, focusing on the implications for developing countries. It analyzes how climate change disrupts production and trade flows, the sector's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, and the potential for international trade cooperation to foster climate-resilient food systems.

• Climate change is projected to significantly hinder global food production by 2050. While overall production is expected to grow by 60% over 2010 levels, it will be 8 percentage points lower than it would have been without climate change, with the most severe disruptions occurring in Africa and South Asia.
• Climate change is expected to drive up food prices by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, with roots and tubers seeing the highest increase at 37%. Cereals, fruits, vegetables, and other crops are projected to rise by over 20%, while oils and sugars are expected to increase by 7%.
• The agri-food system contributed 29.7% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2022. This total includes on-farm emissions (7.8 Gt CO2eq, or 14.3% of global anthropogenic emissions), agricultural land-use change (3 Gt CO2eq, or 5.6% of global emissions), and pre- and post-production emissions (5.3 Gt CO2eq).
• The primary drivers of agricultural GHG emissions in 2022 were CO2 from net forest conversion (2.9 Gt CO2eq) and methane (CH4) from ruminant livestock (2.9 Gt CO2eq), together accounting for 53.6% of on-farm and land-use change emissions.
• Developing countries face risks of marginalization due to the fragmented nature of trade-related climate measures and the high cost of compliance. There is a specific need for investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, such as roads, storage capacity, and distribution networks, to help these countries adapt.
• Global agricultural support is heavily skewed toward environmentally harmful practices; of the approximately $540 billion spent annually on producer support, two-thirds are estimated to be price-distorting and harmful to the environment.
• The document proposes a multilateral agenda for trade and climate cooperation focused on six objectives: managing trade tensions, reforming harmful subsidies, facilitating access to climate-related technologies, disciplining export restrictions, maintaining global food security stocks, and establishing food import financing facilities.

APA

Bellmann, C. (2025). Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Agriculture-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1744702132

Chicago

Bellmann, Christophe. Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2025. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Agriculture-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1744702132.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bellmann |first1=Christophe |title=Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=April 2025 |url=https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Agriculture-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1744702132 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bellmann2025agriculture, author = {Bellmann, Christophe}, title = {{Agriculture Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Agriculture-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1744702132}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }