Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

The report assesses Algeria's development trajectory to 2040, identifying governance and the resulting economic policy framework as the primary drivers of the country's challenges. It utilizes the International Futures modelling platform to contrast a 'Current Path' forecast with a prospective 'Algerian Dream' scenario characterized by a democratic government and equitable prosperity. For comparative analysis, the report benchmarks Algeria against other lower middle-income economies in Africa and global upper middle-income groups.

• The authors identify governance issues and the associated economic policy framework as the fundamental cause of most of the challenges facing Algeria.
• The report develops a positive 'Algerian Dream' (Rêve algérien) scenario in which Algeria achieves a more equitable and prosperous pathway under a democratic and legitimate government.
• The World Bank classifies Algeria as one of 22 lower middle-income economies located in Africa.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2026). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=02-purpose-and-scope

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=02-purpose-and-scope.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=02-purpose-and-scope |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=02-purpose-and-scope}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }