AFRICA 2043

The report analyzes Africa's projected development through 2043, contrasting a baseline 'Current Path' of steady but insufficient growth with a 'Combined scenario' of integrated reforms. While the Current Path shows modest poverty reduction and economic growth, the Combined scenario demonstrates transformative potential, including a GDP (MER) of US$8.9 trillion and the removal of 199 million additional people from extreme poverty. The analysis identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), governance reform, and human capital investment as the three most decisive drivers for accelerating this transformation.

• On the 'Current Path' (business-as-usual), Africa is projected to see steady but insufficient progress, with GDP (MER) rising from US$2.66 trillion in 2023 to US$6.36 trillion by 2043, and the share of people in extreme poverty declining from 31% to 19%.
• The 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms across eight sectors would be transformative, increasing GDP (MER) to US$8.9 trillion (an average annual growth rate of 6.2%) and reducing the number of people in extreme poverty by approximately 199 million compared to the Current Path.
• Three primary drivers are identified as the most critical for accelerating Africa's long-term transformation: the full implementation of the AfCFTA, stronger governance, and investments in human capital.
• Africa faces a 'double burden of disease' on its current trajectory, where deaths from communicable causes decline only modestly while non-communicable diseases (NCDs) rise steeply, with cardiovascular deaths projected to increase from 1.8 million to 3.4 million by 2043.
• Structural economic weaknesses persist on the Current Path, with over 50% of workers expected to remain in informal employment by 2043; however, the Combined scenario could reduce this to about 40%.
• Energy access is projected to improve to 88.5% in the Combined scenario, compared to approximately 73% on the Current Path, driven largely by the expansion of renewables, particularly solar energy.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2025). AFRICA 2043. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Africa-2043-summary-03.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. AFRICA 2043. 2025. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Africa-2043-summary-03.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=AFRICA 2043 |date=October 2025 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Africa-2043-summary-03.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2025africa, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{AFRICA 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Africa-2043-summary-03.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }