AFRICA 2043

The 'AFRICA 2043' report by the Institute for Security Studies uses the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform to analyze Africa's development trajectory to 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) forecast against eight sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms, aiming to align with the African Union's Agenda 2063.

• On the 'Current Path' baseline trajectory, Africa is projected to see steady but insufficient progress. The population is expected to grow from 1.5 billion in 2024 to 2.3 billion by 2043, and GDP (MER) is projected to rise from US$2.66 trillion in 2023 to US$6.36 trillion in 2043, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%. However, extreme poverty is only expected to decline from 31% in 2023 to 19% in 2043, leaving nearly 440 million people below the US$2.15/day line.
• Africa faces a 'double burden of disease' on its current path. While deaths from communicable diseases like malaria are projected to fall from 677,000 in 2023 to 527,000 in 2043, deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rising, with cardiovascular deaths expected to nearly double from 1.8 million to 3.4 million.
• A 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms across eight sectors would be transformative, raising GDP (MER) to US$8.9 trillion (an average annual growth rate of 6.2%) and increasing GDP per capita (PPP) to US$8,040. This scenario would reduce extreme poverty to almost 11%, meaning approximately 199 million fewer people in extreme poverty compared to the Current Path, and lower informal employment from 53% to about 40% of the labour force.
• In the Combined scenario, electricity access would improve to 88.5%, compared to approximately 73% on the Current Path, driven largely by the expansion of renewables such as solar. However, energy consumption is expected to continue outpacing supply due to industrialization and population growth.
• Three primary drivers are identified as the most decisive for accelerating Africa's long-term transformation: the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), stronger governance, and investments in human capital (education and health). These are described as the 'scaffolding' that enables other sectoral reforms in agriculture, infrastructure, and manufacturing to succeed.
• The report identifies significant barriers to achieving the Combined scenario, including political fragmentation, entrenched patronage systems, limited accountability in many states, and external shocks such as climate change and global economic volatility. It notes that progress is uneven, as some countries face persistent fragility and conflict.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2025). AFRICA 2043. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Africa-2043-summary-03.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. AFRICA 2043. 2025. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Africa-2043-summary-03.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=AFRICA 2043 |date=October 2025 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Africa-2043-summary-03.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2025africa, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{AFRICA 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Africa-2043-summary-03.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }