Informing an Illustrative People’s Energy Planning process Final Report

The report uses the SATIMGE modelling framework to compare a least-cost Reference Case against various Policy Scenarios and an 'Ideal Energy Scenario' for South Africa. The Ideal Energy Scenario targets net zero CO2 by 2050 with a cumulative GHG limit of 8 Gt CO2-eq, featuring a systemic shift to 80% public transport, expanded social provisioning for low-income households (including 6.5 million solar water heaters), and a domestic clean energy manufacturing sector with 85% local content. Results indicate that while total system investment costs increase, an affordable and socially inclusive transition is possible, with energy sector employment increasing due to localisation measures, despite a slight relative decline in economy-wide employment compared to the Reference Case.

• The Ideal Energy Scenario achieves an economy-wide net zero CO2 emissions target by 2050, constrained by a cumulative GHG emissions limit of 8 Gt CO2-eq between 2021 and 2050.
• Social provisioning in the Ideal Energy Scenario targets low-income households through a ramp-up in the free basic electricity (FBE) subsidy and the deployment of 6.5 million solar water heaters (SWHs).
• Transport reform in the Ideal Energy Scenario aims for a systemic shift from private to public transport, targeting an 80% public transport share by 2050, alongside significant electrification of passenger and freight transport.
• To support economic resilience and job creation, the Ideal Energy Scenario incorporates a localisation component targeting up to 85% local content in electricity technology supply chains, such as battery storage and solar PV, by 2050.
• The electricity system in the Ideal Energy Scenario is dominated by wind and solar PV, with no new nuclear capacity added and gas serving only as a limited backup and peaking resource.
• Modelling indicates that while total energy system costs increase in absolute terms, they remain manageable and do not differ significantly from the Reference Case, with savings realized through enhanced energy efficiency in transport and industry.
• The Ideal Energy Scenario results in a slight drop in economic growth relative to the Reference Case, but energy sector-specific employment increases due to the localisation of the clean electricity value chain.
• The achievement of net zero in the Ideal Energy Scenario relies on the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in key sectors, which introduces risks regarding technology cost, availability, and performance.
• In the Ideal Energy Scenario, bioenergy is restricted to the use of alien invasive plant species only to mitigate risks to water systems, land use, and biodiversity.
• The 'Big Gas' policy scenario, which accelerates the availability of the Ibhubesi resource to 2027, increases short-term gas consumption but results in only a marginal increase in the long term by 2050 compared to the Reference Case.

APA

WWF South Africa (2025). Informing an Illustrative People’s Energy Planning process Final Report. https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/esrg_ipep_final-technical-report_1.pdf

Chicago

WWF South Africa. Informing an Illustrative People’s Energy Planning process Final Report. 2025. https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/esrg_ipep_final-technical-report_1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=WWF South Africa |title=Informing an Illustrative People’s Energy Planning process Final Report |date=June 2025 |url=https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/esrg_ipep_final-technical-report_1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wwfsouthafrica2025informing, author = {{WWF South Africa}}, title = {{Informing an Illustrative People’s Energy Planning process Final Report}}, institution = {WWF South Africa}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/esrg_ipep_final-technical-report_1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }