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The Kenya Energy Transition & Investment Plan (ETIP) 2023-2050 outlines a strategic roadmap for Kenya to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050. The plan identifies an 'Orderly Transition' pathway that balances environmental sustainability with economic growth, requiring approximately USD 600 billion in capital investment. This transition focuses on the rapid deployment of renewables, electrification of transport, and the adoption of clean cooking technologies, while leveraging green growth opportunities in hydrogen and low-carbon manufacturing to create an estimated 500,000 net new jobs.

This report by WWF South Africa assesses the socio-economic and environmental impacts of banning and phasing out 10 high-risk plastic products in South Africa. Using a dynamic input-output model, the study compares a business-as-usual baseline against two scenarios: an immediate ban of four products by 2025 and a phased withdrawal of six products by 2030. The findings suggest that while plastic production jobs would decrease, overall GDP and employment would expand, and significant costs associated with environmental externalities would be saved.

This document describes the approach and methodology used for a special report titled "Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)". It outlines the use of the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to model three scenarios against a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets through 2030.

The report 'Navigating Energy Transitions: Mapping the road to 1.5°C' analyzes various climate and energy pathways to determine the requirements for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. It focuses on the necessary phase-out of fossil fuels, the scale-up of renewables, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy systems, specifically regarding Europe's reliance on Russian gas.

This research paper examines decarbonisation options for the heating sector in Ulaanbaatar, comparing full electrification with the use of solar assisted ground source heat pumps (SAGSHP) to reduce electricity demand and total costs.

This report by Ember analyzes global electricity data from the first half of 2022 (H1-2022) compared to H1-2021, focusing on the role of renewable energy in meeting growing electricity demand and its impact on fossil fuel generation and carbon emissions.

This report by Ember analyzes global electricity data from 75 countries to assess the energy transition in the first half of 2022 (H1-2022). It finds that renewable energy growth fully met the increase in global electricity demand during this period, preventing a rise in fossil fuel generation and associated CO2 emissions.

This briefing by Ember discusses the feasibility and requirements for Indonesia to achieve a net zero power sector by 2040, based on analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It highlights the necessity of phasing out unabated coal, increasing clean energy investment, and addressing technical and regulatory barriers to accelerate the broader national goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

This policy brief by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) argues that global oil demand is poised for a steep decline by 2030, driven primarily by the electrification of road transport and intensifying climate policies. The document analyzes scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) to suggest that Canada, as a major oil exporter, must plan for a shrinking global market.

This introduction to a special report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the socio-economic and ecological challenges facing the Horn of Africa—comprising Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan—and describes the use of the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform to forecast development pathways to 2040.

The report outlines three potential development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040: 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'. Each scenario evaluates different policy priorities—ranging from industrial growth and technological innovation to environmental stability—and their projected impacts on GDP and per capita income relative to a 'Current Path' forecast.

This report by FSD Africa provides a first quantitative risk assessment and stress-testing framework for financial institutions in Africa to evaluate nature-related opportunities and risks. Using the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) LEAP approach, the study analyzes the impact of nature loss and nature-positive transitions on equity and lending portfolios across several African countries and private banks. It highlights that while aggregate portfolio impacts may appear small due to limited direct exposure, the risks are material for nature-intensive sectors like agriculture and extractives, where nature-related risks could double expected credit losses by 2030.

This report evaluates the operational feasibility and reliability of California achieving an accelerated interim target of 85% clean electricity by 2030. Using production cost modeling (PLEXOS) and capacity expansion modeling (RESOLVE), the study stress-tests three resource portfolios—Base Case, Diverse Clean Resources, and High Electrification—against various stressors including extreme weather, gas and coal retirements, and import constraints. The findings indicate that an 85% clean target is reliably achievable, provided there is sufficient battery storage and a strategic retention of some natural gas capacity or access to regional imports.

This document outlines the forecasting methodology used in the Chilling Prospects 2022 report to estimate global risk associated with the lack of access to sustainable cooling through 2030. The methodology identifies four risk profiles based on income and electricity access and evaluates three scenarios—Current trends, SDG7.1, and a combined SDG7.1 and SDG1.1 scenario—across 76 countries to determine how electrification and poverty reduction influence vulnerability to heat.

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyses the decarbonization potential of the heavy-duty vehicle sector in the EU up to 2030. It evaluates three indicative pathways to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, comparing the EU's 'Fit for 55' plan, an adjusted IEA scenario, and a linear reduction pathway. The authors conclude that while individual measures like electrification, energy efficiency, and biofuels are available, they must be combined to achieve significant reductions, though even a combined approach falls short of the most aggressive linear pathway to zero.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report analyzes passenger vehicle stock scenarios in China to determine their impact on carbon emissions and electricity demand. It evaluates three scenarios—Pre-COVID-19, Current Policies, and 100% BEV—across two electricity decarbonization pathways, concluding that achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 requires both a 100% battery electric vehicle (BEV) fleet and a fully decarbonized power sector.

This report by DNA Economics for the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) analyzes various progressive financing options to fund a Universal Basic Income Guarantee (UBIG) in South Africa. It evaluates the revenue potential of nine specific tax measures, including a Social Security Tax, Resource Rent Tax, and Luxury VAT, and models their impact on national debt and the primary balance over the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).

The 2021 report by the NewClimate Institute evaluates climate action by subnational and non-state actors across ten major emitting economies, focusing on the progress of cities, regions, and businesses toward emissions reduction targets.

This research paper introduces a scenario-based framework using global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess future cross-border climate impacts in Kenya and evaluate corresponding adaptation options.

This research paper develops four narrative scenarios to project future fishery conflicts between 2030 and 2060, integrating climate change and overfishing with broader societal, economic, and political trends.