Search Climate Insights Directory
1,466 documents from Institute for Security Studies
Zimbabwe
The report analyzes Zimbabwe's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) with various sectoral and combined scenarios. It identifies manufacturing as the most critical driver for GDP growth and poverty reduction. While the Current Path suggests slow progress toward Sustainable Development Goals, the 'Combined scenario'—integrating reforms in governance, infrastructure, health, and trade—could significantly increase GDP per capita, reduce extreme poverty to 3%, and transition the energy system toward renewables, drastically cutting carbon emissions.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Tunisia Development Futures
The report analyzes Tunisia's development prospects up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' of modest growth with various sectoral scenarios. It finds that while Tunisia has strong foundations in education and health, it faces structural stagnation, high youth unemployment, and an energy deficit. A 'Combined scenario' integrating reforms in governance, manufacturing, agriculture, and trade could significantly boost GDP, reduce extreme poverty to 0.7%, and lower the Gini coefficient to 0.30, though a persistent energy gap remains.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
South Africa Development Futures
The report examines South Africa's development prospects to 2043, contrasting a 'Current Path' of modest growth and persistent poverty with a 'Combined scenario' where strategic interventions in manufacturing, trade, infrastructure, and governance lead to a 33% increase in GDP per capita. It highlights critical structural constraints, including a high disease burden, poor education quality, and energy insecurity, while proposing a transition toward an export-led, green economy.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Senegal Development Futures
The report evaluates Senegal's development prospects to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast with eight sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. Key findings indicate that while GDP is projected to grow, significant challenges remain in poverty, education, and infrastructure. The most impactful scenarios for improving GDP per capita and reducing extreme poverty are the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Manufacturing, and Governance scenarios. A combined holistic approach could increase GDP by 86% over the current path and reduce extreme poverty to 3.2% of the population by 2043, though this would be accompanied by a 46.2% increase in carbon emissions compared to the current path.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Sudan Development Futures
The report analyzes Sudan's development prospects through 2043, identifying violent conflict as the primary constraint to growth. It uses scenario modelling to demonstrate that while the 'Current Path' leads to stagnation and high poverty, a 'Combined scenario' of reforms in agriculture, governance, and infrastructure could significantly increase GDP and reduce extreme poverty. The analysis emphasizes that peace is a necessary precondition for these transformations.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Uganda Development Futures
The report evaluates Uganda's path toward middle-income status by 2040, analyzing scenarios across demographics, health, education, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, and governance. It finds that while the 'Current Path' falls short of Vision 2040 targets, a combined implementation of strategic interventions could lift 11.03 million more people out of poverty and raise GDP per capita to US$6,925 by 2040, reaching the US$9,500 target by 2045. Key drivers for growth include large-scale infrastructure and leapfrogging, which is identified as having the greatest impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. However, these gains are accompanied by a projected 30% increase in carbon emissions above the Current Path, primarily driven by manufacturing and governance improvements.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
SEYCHELLES DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The report forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would increase Seychelles' GDP per capita to US$40,319 by 2043, a 21% increase over the Current Path. The most significant drivers of this growth are Free Trade and Manufacturing/Transfers, while the service sector is expected to see the largest sectoral increase. The scenario is projected to reduce extreme poverty by 10 percentage points and increase the overall economy size to US$3.1 billion. However, the report notes continued vulnerability to climate change and shocks due to reliance on tourism and fishing, and projects carbon emissions will rise to 241,000 tons by 2043.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Zambia Development Futures
The report projects that Zambia's GDP per capita will rise to US$5,467 by 2043 under the Current Path, though extreme poverty remains high at 67.3%. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and 'leapfrogging' through renewable energy and ICT as the most impactful drivers for economic growth. While carbon emissions are forecast to peak in 2036 and then decline due to increased hydroelectricity, the report highlights critical vulnerabilities in food security, secondary education, and rural electricity access.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
ZAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The report forecasts that Zambia's GDP per capita would increase by 51% by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario compared to the Current Path, potentially lifting an additional 9.4 million people out of extreme poverty. While the economy would grow to US$157.5 billion, the services sector would continue to dominate, and carbon emissions are projected to rise to 6 million tons due to economic expansion.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Senegal: Conclusion
The report identifies key challenges for Senegal, including undiversified exports and climatic hazards, while highlighting the potential of manufacturing, education, and governance to raise incomes. It argues that a holistic development strategy aligned with Agenda 2063 could increase GDP by 86% by 2043 compared to the current path. Specific recommendations include diversifying cash crops, managing emerging oil and gas revenues, leveraging wind power for rural electricity, and implementing constitutional reforms to strengthen the judiciary and legislature.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Tanzania: Introduction
Tanzania is a lower-middle-income country in East Africa characterized by steady GDP growth but significant gaps in human development and political stability. While the economy has grown at an average of 6% annually, the country faces persistent poverty and environmental challenges such as deforestation and soil erosion. Politically, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) maintains dominance, though the 2025 general elections were marked by irregularities, violence, and the suppression of opposition parties, leading to international condemnation and a deepening governance crisis.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Research paper
Tanzania: Conclusion and Recommendations
The report identifies structural constraints in Tanzania, such as extreme informality and infrastructure gaps, and proposes a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms. This integrated pathway could increase GDP by US$80.4 billion and reduce poverty from 71% to 24% by 2043. Key recommendations include deepening AfCFTA integration, modernising agriculture, diversifying energy sources, and mainstreaming climate adaptation.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Namibia Development Futures
The report projects Namibia's economic and social future to 2043. While GDP per capita is expected to rise on the Current Path, the country faces persistent extreme poverty and food insecurity. Sectoral scenarios suggest that manufacturing, free trade, and agriculture offer the highest potential for economic growth, while a combined 'Agenda 2063' approach could significantly lift millions out of poverty, albeit at the cost of increased carbon emissions.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES
The report projects that Namibia's GDP per capita will increase from US$10,419 in 2019 to US$23,261 by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, a 152% increase. This scenario is expected to lift an additional 700,000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path. While the service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors are identified as the largest GDP contributors, the report notes that this economic growth will lead to a 267% increase in carbon emissions from 2019 levels, reaching 4.4 million tons by 2043.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Republic of the Congo Development Futures
The report analyzes the Republic of the Congo's economic and social outlook to 2043. It highlights a heavy dependence on oil, high poverty rates, and vulnerability to climate change. It evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios—including free trade, leapfrogging, and manufacturing—demonstrating that an integrated approach (Combined Agenda 2063) could significantly increase GDP per capita and reduce poverty, though it would lead to higher carbon emissions.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Togo Development Futures
The report projects Togo's development to 2043, highlighting a transition toward solar energy and urbanisation, while noting that population growth may outpace poverty reduction on the current path. It assesses how targeted improvements in agriculture, trade, and governance could significantly boost GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty, though such growth is linked to increased carbon emissions.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Zimbabwe: Conclusion
The report identifies structural challenges in Zimbabwe, including political instability and climate vulnerabilities, and proposes a synergised policy approach across sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and governance. It argues that prioritising industrialisation and AfCFTA integration could accelerate GDP growth to 9% by 2030 and peak at 14% in 2037.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation
The report concludes that piecemeal reform is insufficient for Somalia's development, advocating for an integrated approach. It identifies state capacity and human capital as the most critical levers for growth, noting that a 'Combined scenario' of improvements could increase GDP (MER) by US$18.9 billion and lift 6.1 million people out of extreme poverty by 2043. Key recommendations include strengthening public institutions, expanding the manufacturing and agro-processing sectors to reduce reliance on live animal exports, and adopting pragmatic urban governance to manage displacement-driven urbanization.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Sierra Leone Development Futures
The report projects that Sierra Leone's population will grow to 13.1 million by 2043, with GDP increasing to US$12.8 billion under the Current Path. However, extreme poverty is expected to persist, with 42.2% of the population living below US$1.90 per day. Energy production is forecast to be dominated by gas (92.7%), and carbon emissions are projected to rise to 2 million tons. The report evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios, finding that agriculture and free trade have the highest potential to increase GDP per capita. In a Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, GDP per capita could reach US$4,304 and extreme poverty could drop to 10.3%, though carbon emissions would increase to 3.3 million tons.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Report
Uganda Background
The document outlines Uganda's transition to multiparty democracy and its current governance structure. It details the country's natural resource wealth, specifically the discovery of oil reserves on Lake Albert and the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), while noting environmental opposition from the European Union Parliament. The text also traces Uganda's economic planning from early independence through to Vision 2040 and the current Third National Development Plan (NDPIII), which focuses on resource-led industrialisation to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2040.
AI-generated
This summary is written by a language model reading the source document. It is not the publisher's words and is not a substitute for the original.
Document type: Research paper