South Africa Development Futures

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of South Africa's development trajectory to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) against eight sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined' scenario. It examines the impacts of demographics, health, education, manufacturing, trade (AfCFTA), infrastructure, financial flows, and governance on the country's GDP, poverty levels, and carbon emissions. The analysis highlights structural challenges such as extreme inequality, high unemployment, and a history of deindustrialisation, while offering policy recommendations to transition toward an export-led, green economy with improved human capital and governance.

• Under the 'Current Path' scenario, South Africa's population is projected to grow from 63.8 million in 2023 to 77 million by 2043, with the median age increasing from 29.1 to 34.1 years. Urbanisation is expected to rise from 66% in 2023 to 72% by 2043, increasing pressure on urban infrastructure.
• The 'Current Path' forecasts modest economic growth, with GDP increasing from US$392.1 billion in 2023 to US$628.3 billion by 2043. Poverty remains a critical issue, with the percentage of people living below the upper-middle-income poverty line (US$6.85 per day) projected to decline only slightly from 62% in 2023 to 58% in 2043.
• The 'Combined' scenario, integrating all eight sectoral interventions, predicts a 33% increase in GDP per capita above the Current Path by 2043 (an additional US$4,920 per person). This scenario would see the poverty rate (at US$6.85) drop to 50% by 2043, representing 6.1 million fewer poor people than the Current Path.
• Manufacturing is identified as the sectoral scenario with the largest impact on GDP per capita, projecting a 6.3% increase (US$930) above the Current Path by 2043. In this scenario, manufacturing's contribution to GDP would rise from 11.62% (US$46 billion) in 2023 to 18.8% (US$129 billion) in 2043.
• Full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is projected to increase South Africa's total trade as a percentage of GDP from 57% in 2023 to 72% by 2043. This would make the economy 9% larger (an additional US$54 billion) compared to the Current Path.
• The 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario forecasts that electricity access could reach near universal levels (100%) by 2043, compared to 92% on the Current Path. This transition to renewables, specifically solar and wind, would reduce carbon emissions in the Combined scenario to 37% below the Current Path by 2043.
• Poor human capital, driven by the lingering effects of HIV/AIDS and low education quality, is cited as the most significant structural drag on long-term growth. In the 'Demographics and Health' scenario, life expectancy is projected to increase to 73 years by 2043, compared to 70.4 years on the Current Path.
• The 'Education' scenario projects that upper-secondary completion rates could reach 83% by 2043, up from 62% in 2023 and a projected 68% on the Current Path. Mean years of education for the 14- to 24-year-old cohort would reach 10.7 years by 2043.
• The 'Financial Flows' scenario envisions FDI inflows reaching 4.7% of GDP by 2043, compared to 2.2% on the Current Path, increasing the FDI stock to US$357 billion. This would result in an economy US$38.5 billion larger by 2043.
• The 'Governance' scenario focuses on reducing security challenges and institutional weaknesses, projecting a GDP per capita increase of approximately US$840 above the Current Path. It is noted as the most effective scenario for extreme poverty reduction due to the inclusion of large welfare transfers.
• South Africa's agricultural sector faces risks of becoming a net food importer by 2043 on the Current Path, with a projected 15.7 million metric ton shortfall in crop production. However, the 'Agriculture' scenario projects a surplus of 3.4% of demand by 2043 through targeted investments in irrigation and yields.
• South Africa is the 15th largest global carbon emitter and the largest in Africa. The report notesC notes that the country will likely missSS miss its 2030 ParisS carbon emissions targets under the Paris Agreement due to the decision to extend the life of several coal-fired power stations.

APA

Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2026). South Africa Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/south-africa/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Alize le Roux. South Africa Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/south-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=South Africa Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/south-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026south, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{South Africa Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/south-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }