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This report provides a comprehensive analysis of South Africa's development trajectory to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) against eight sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined' scenario. It examines the impacts of demographics, health, education, manufacturing, trade (AfCFTA), infrastructure, financial flows, and governance on the country's GDP, poverty levels, and carbon emissions. The analysis highlights structural challenges such as extreme inequality, high unemployment, and a history of deindustrialisation, while offering policy recommendations to transition toward an export-led, green economy with improved human capital and governance.

This report evaluates the state of industrialisation in Africa, analyzing the causes of stagnation and premature deindustrialisation while modeling a 'Manufacturing scenario' to forecast the potential economic benefits of scaled-up investment in the sector by 2043.

This introduction to the Africa Manufacturing Forecast examines the continent's struggle with industrialisation, noting a stagnation in manufacturing value added and a decline in global market share. It outlines current strategic efforts to reverse this trend through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the adoption of green and digital technologies, and the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to move Africa up the global value chain.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) submitted a critique of South Africa's 2026 Budget, arguing that the National Treasury continues a decade of austerity that undermines economic growth and public service delivery. The IEJ contends that the budget prioritizes debt stabilization and tax relief for high-income earners over critical investments in infrastructure, education, and social protection, thereby failing to address chronic food insecurity and unemployment.

This briefing note by the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) argues that the 2026 National Budget should pivot from a narrow focus on fiscal stability and debt reduction toward a 'full employment agenda.' The IEJ contends that current macroeconomic policies are insufficient to address mass unemployment and poverty, proposing instead a developmental strategy based on increased public investment, progressive taxation, and the rebuilding of state capacity to drive structural economic change.

The African Climate Foundation (ACF) Strategy 2026–2030 outlines a shift from a 'proof of concept' to a continental platform focused on ensuring Africa's climate transition is shaped by African agency. The strategy prioritizes three core areas—energy access, climate resilience, and green industrialisation—supported by cross-cutting enablers in sustainable finance and international partnerships. ACF operates as a support institution rather than a direct implementer, utilizing strategic grantmaking, fiscal hosting, and incubation to strengthen the capacity of African governments, coalitions, and communities.

This research paper examines the intersection of international trade regulations and Africa's ambitions for green technology and industrialisation. It specifically analyzes the potential impacts of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and US tariffs, arguing that while these measures could theoretically drive demand for renewables, they are more likely to create fiscal constraints and hinder the continent's ability to invest in green R&D. The author advocates for a coordinated African response through the UNFCCC, the WTO, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to secure technology transfer and affordable finance.

This concept note from the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) critiques the South African National Treasury's reliance on austerity and its resistance to implementing wealth taxes. The document argues that the government's claims regarding high statutory tax rates are misleading due to extensive tax breaks and corporate tax avoidance, and suggests that expanding the fiscal envelope through wealth taxation and the strategic use of the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF) is necessary to address extreme poverty and fund a green industrial transition.

The report proposes a worker-centred alternative financing framework for South Africa's just transition to a low-carbon economy. It argues that the existing Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP) over-relies on private funding and profit-driven models, which may fail to deliver social justice or sufficient green industrialisation. The proposed framework integrates worker demands with promotional fiscal and monetary policies and the reform of Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) to ensure the transition is treated as a public good.

This report by the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) proposes a worker-centred alternative financing framework for South Africa's just transition to a low-carbon economy. It argues that existing mechanisms, such as the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP), rely too heavily on private sector funding and profit-driven models, which risk neglecting socioeconomic rights and worker protections. The IEJ advocates for a holistic macroeconomic shift involving promotional fiscal and monetary policies, the creation of a Climate Response Fund (CRF), and the realignment of Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) to prioritise public goods and job creation over profit.

This research paper examines how the trade war between the US and China, alongside President Trump's critical mineral diplomacy, creates a strategic window for African nations to transition from raw material exporters to green technology manufacturing hubs. It argues that countries rich in minerals like cobalt and lithium can leverage geopolitical competition to secure technology transfer, domestic value addition, and diversified investment portfolios.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) submitted comments to the Finance Standing Committee regarding the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Amendment Bill [B26 – 2018]. While supporting the transition to sole state ownership of the bank to align with international norms, the IEJ argues that ownership changes alone will not resolve policy incoherence or achieve sustainable economic growth. The IEJ advocates for a broader review of the SARB Act to expand the bank's mandate toward green structural transformation and increase coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) submitted recommendations to Parliament’s Joint Constitutional Review Committee advocating for the reform of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) mandate to align monetary policy with developmental goals, including employment and green industrialisation.

The Lobito Corridor is a strategic transport route designed to move critical raw materials (CRMs) from the Copperbelt of the DRC and Zambia to the Atlantic coast of Angola for export to the US and EU. While it promises economic transformation and local industrialization, the project faces significant geopolitical competition from China, sustainability risks related to human rights and artisanal mining, and financial uncertainty stemming from the US political landscape under the Trump presidency.

This informal input paper, prepared for the G20 Working Group on Trade and Investment by the African Future Policies Hub, Lead-IT, and the World Resources Institute, advocates for a shift from nationalistic green industrial policies toward "cooperative green competitiveness." The report outlines strategies for inclusive green industrialisation, emphasizing the role of industrial clusters, regional cooperation, and reformed climate finance to ensure developing countries are integrated into global green value chains without repeating past patterns of resource exploitation.

This policy brief examines the intersection of green industrialisation, digitalisation, and artificial intelligence (AI) within the Southern African Development Community (SADC). It argues that current education and training systems face critical gaps in access, relevance, and applicability, necessitating a shift toward 'skills foresight' and 'anticipatory governance' to prepare the region's workforce for sustainable, inclusive, and future-ready economies.

This policy brief by the Institute for Economic Justice examines the role of Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) in climate finance, focusing specifically on the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) in South Africa. It argues that the IDC's current operations are misaligned with climate goals due to a portfolio skewed toward carbon-intensive sectors and conservative lending practices, and proposes specific financial and governance reforms to support a just transition.

This research paper by the Institute for Economic Justice argues for a state-led, assertive fiscal approach to South Africa's climate response, critiquing the current reliance on the blended finance model. The author proposes the creation of a Climate Response Fund, financed through a combination of carbon tax reforms, earmarked levies, and public sector efficiency savings, to ensure a worker-centric and equitable transition.

This research paper by the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) examines the role of Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) in providing climate finance for South Africa's Just Energy Transition (JET). It focuses on the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), arguing that its current self-financing model and commercial risk appetite hinder its ability to provide the 'patient capital' necessary for green industrialisation and worker transitions. The paper proposes a shift toward recapitalisation via fiscal and monetary instruments, more concessional lending, and democratised governance to align the IDC with socially just and worker-centred climate goals.

This policy brief examines the potential for the South African G20 presidency to facilitate the rechannelling of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the African Development Bank (AfDB). It outlines the financial mechanisms for such a transfer, the political and legal hurdles preventing it, and the potential development impacts for African nations.