ZAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report forecasts that Zambia's GDP per capita would increase by 51% by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario compared to the Current Path, potentially lifting an additional 9.4 million people out of extreme poverty. While the economy would grow to US$157.5 billion, the services sector would continue to dominate, and carbon emissions are projected to rise to 6 million tons due to economic expansion.

• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Zambia's GDP per capita is projected to reach US$8,244 by 2043, representing a 51% improvement (an increase of US$2,776) over the Current Path forecast of US$5,467. The most significant drivers of this increase are the Free Trade, Leapfrogging, and Infrastructure scenarios, while Financial Flows and Health/WaSH have the smallest impacts.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could significantly reduce extreme poverty in Zambia, lowering it to 42.1% (12.6 million people) by 2043, compared to 67.3% (22 million people) under the Current Path. This represents the potential to lift an additional 9.4 million Zambians out of extreme poverty.
• Zambia's total economy is forecast to be 70% larger in 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, reaching US$157.5 billion, compared to US$92.8 billion on the Current Path. The services sector is expected to dominate the economy, increasing its contribution to GDP to 62.1% in the Combined scenario, while the small size of the agriculture and manufacturing sectors remains below the average for lower middle-income African peers.
• Carbon emissions in Zambia are projected to increase to 6 million tons by 2043 under the Agenda 2063 scenario, which is 140% above the Current Path forecast. This increase is attributed to the 70% larger economy, although the report notes that emissions are starting from a very low base of 1.31 million tons in 2019.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). ZAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. ZAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=ZAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026zambia, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{ZAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }