ISS African Futures

This report by the Institute for Security Studies presents economic and social forecasts for Zambia up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' trajectory with a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' that integrates 11 sectoral improvements.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios including Free Trade, Leapfrogging, and Infrastructure, is forecast to increase Zambia's GDP per capita to US$8,244 by 2043. This represents a 51% improvement (an increase of US$2,776) over the Current Path forecast of US$5,467 for the same year.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario has the potential to significantly reduce extreme poverty in Zambia by 2043, bringing the poverty rate down to 42.1% (12.6 million people). This would lift an additional 9.4 million people out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path forecast, where poverty is expected to decrease only modestly to 67.3% (22 million people).
• Zambia's economy is characterized by a dominant services sector, which is forecast to contribute 62.1% of GDP in 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, compared to 57.4% under the Current Path. The report notes that the small size of the agriculture and manufacturing sectors relative to other lower middle-income African peers likely constrains rapid GDP per capita growth.
• The total size of the Zambian economy is forecast to grow from US$35.4 billion in 2019 to US$157.5 billion by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, making it 70% larger than the Current Path forecast of US$92.8 billion. Consequently, carbon emissions are forecast to reach 6 million tons by 2043 in the Agenda 2063 scenario, a 140% increase over the Current Path forecast.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ZM&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }