Sudan Development Futures

This report examines Sudan's development prospects through 2043, identifying the 2023 civil war as the primary constraint on growth. While the 'Current Path' predicts stagnant GDP per capita and persistent extreme poverty, a 'Combined scenario' of reforms in agriculture, governance, trade (AfCFTA), and financial flows could significantly raise living standards and lift 17.3 million more people out of poverty. The report highlights Sudan's vast untapped renewable energy and agricultural potential but emphasizes that a political settlement and the restoration of state institutions are absolute prerequisites for any sustainable recovery.

• Violent conflict is identified as the primary obstacle to Sudan's development, causing massive humanitarian crises and institutional collapse. The war starting in April 2023 has killed over 150,000 people, displaced more than 13 million, and left 24 million facing food insecurity.
• On the 'Current Path', Sudan's economy is projected to grow slowly, with GDP reaching US$38.9 billion by 2043 (an average growth rate of 1.2%). GDP per capita is expected to remain low, reaching US$2,998 by 2043, which is below the average for low-income African peers.
• Poverty is widespread and projected to persist; by 2043, the poverty rate on the Current Path will be 38.8% (31.7 million people), meaning Sudan will miss the Sustainable Development Goal 1 target until 2088.
• The 'Combined scenario'—integrating multiple sectoral interventions—could significantly improve outcomes by 2043, raising GDP to US$58.2 billion and GDP per capita to US$3,176. This scenario would lift 17.3 million more people out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path, reducing the poverty rate to 18%.
• Agricultural transformation, governance reform, regional trade integration (AfCFTA), and external financial flows are the most effective levers for increasing income and reducing poverty. Specifically, the Governance scenario has the highest impact on poverty reduction, followed by Agriculture, AfCFTA, and Financial Flows.
• Sudan possesses significant renewable energy potential, including up to 15 GW of solar power and 1.5 GW of wind energy, but these remain underutilised. Current energy production is dominated by oil, gas, and hydropower, with a significant energy deficit (91.1 million BOE demand vs 86.0 million BOE production in 2023).
• Economic growth in the Combined scenario would lead to higher carbon emissions, rising to 11.4 million tons by 2043, which is 32.6% higher than the Current Path estimate.
• The informal sector is vital but characterized by low productivity. In 2023, it accounted for 14% of GDP, though a large share of the workforce is engaged in it. In the Combined scenario, the informal sector's share of GDP would decline to 5.8% by 2043.
• The conflict has caused severe economic losses. In 2023 alone, Sudan lost US$6.4 billion in GDP, resulting in a per capita income loss of approximately US$500 and pushing 6.9 million additional people into extreme poverty.
• Sudan's population is youthful and growing rapidly, projected to reach 81.7 million by 2043. In 2023, 57.2% of the population was under 15, creating a high dependency ratio that strains government finances and limits domestic savings.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Sudan Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/sudan/

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Sudan Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/sudan/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Sudan Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/sudan/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026sudan, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Sudan Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/sudan/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }