Sudan Development Futures

The report analyzes Sudan's development prospects through 2043, identifying violent conflict as the primary constraint to growth. It uses scenario modelling to demonstrate that while the 'Current Path' leads to stagnation and high poverty, a 'Combined scenario' of reforms in agriculture, governance, and infrastructure could significantly increase GDP and reduce extreme poverty. The analysis emphasizes that peace is a necessary precondition for these transformations.

• Violent conflict is identified as the single most significant barrier to Sudan's development, causing massive displacement, infrastructure destruction, and the near-total collapse of state institutions.
• On the 'Current Path' (business-as-usual), Sudan is projected to miss Sustainable Development Goal 1, with the poverty rate remaining at 38.8% (31.7 million people) by 2043.
• The 'Combined scenario'—integrating multiple sectoral reforms—could raise Sudan's GDP to US$58.2 billion by 2043 and lift 17.3 million more people out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path.
• Agricultural transformation is one of the most powerful levers for raising incomes; the 'Agriculture scenario' could reduce crop import dependency to 25% by 2043, compared to 45.9% on the Current Path.
• Governance reform is the most impactful scenario for poverty reduction, with the potential to improve the composite governance index score to 0.50 by 2043.
• Sudan's healthcare system has suffered catastrophic failure due to the war, with 70-80% of facilities in conflict zones rendered non-functional.
• The education system is experiencing a profound crisis, with only 20% of schools currently operational and over 19 million children facing disruptions.
• Sudan faces a significant energy deficit; total energy demand is projected to reach 129.3 million BOE by 2043 on the Current Path, outstripping production.
• The country's high fertility rate and youthful population create a high dependency ratio, which limits domestic savings and government revenue.
• Economic losses from the 2023 conflict alone are estimated at US$6.4 billion, which pushed approximately 6.9 million additional people into extreme poverty.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Sudan Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/sudan/

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Sudan Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/sudan/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Sudan Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/sudan/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026sudan, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Sudan Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/sudan/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }