Tanzania: Conclusion and Recommendations

The report identifies structural constraints in Tanzania, such as extreme informality and infrastructure gaps, and proposes a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms. This integrated pathway could increase GDP by US$80.4 billion and reduce poverty from 71% to 24% by 2043. Key recommendations include deepening AfCFTA integration, modernising agriculture, diversifying energy sources, and mainstreaming climate adaptation.

• Tanzania faces significant structural constraints that hinder productivity and inclusion, most notably extreme informality, which accounts for 46% of GDP and 76% of employment, making it the second highest in Africa.
• Analysis of sectoral scenarios indicates that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides the largest improvement in GDP per capita and the second-largest reduction in poverty, while the Governance scenario results in the greatest decline in poverty.
• A 'Combined scenario' of simultaneous investments across multiple sectors could raise Tanzania's GDP by US$80.4 billion above the current path by 2043, moving the country from the 11th to the 6th-largest economy in Africa.
• Under the integrated Combined scenario, poverty is projected to drop from 71% in 2023 to 24% in 2043, representing a reduction of 15 million people living in poverty based on the LMIC poverty line of US$3.65 per day.
• To enhance climate resilience, the document recommends localising the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), investing in low-carbon infrastructure and sustainable land use, and scaling up nature-based solutions.

APA

van Rooyen, M., & Chipanda, B. (2026). Tanzania: Conclusion and Recommendations. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TZ&topic=05-conclusion

Chicago

van Rooyen, Michelle, and Blessing Chipanda. Tanzania: Conclusion and Recommendations. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TZ&topic=05-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Rooyen |first1=Michelle |last2=Chipanda |first2=Blessing |title=Tanzania: Conclusion and Recommendations |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TZ&topic=05-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanrooyen2026tanzania, author = {van Rooyen, Michelle and Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{Tanzania: Conclusion and Recommendations}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TZ&topic=05-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }