NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES

The report projects that Namibia's GDP per capita will increase from US$10,419 in 2019 to US$23,261 by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, a 152% increase. This scenario is expected to lift an additional 700,000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path. While the service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors are identified as the largest GDP contributors, the report notes that this economic growth will lead to a 267% increase in carbon emissions from 2019 levels, reaching 4.4 million tons by 2043.

• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Namibia's GDP per capita is projected to rise from US$10,419 in 2019 to US$23,261 in 2043, which is 52.1% higher than the Current Path forecast of US$15,293 for the same year.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty in Namibia, with 1.09 million people (28.7% of the population) living in extreme poverty by 2043, lifting 700,000 more people out of poverty than the Current Path forecast.
• The service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors are expected to be the largest contributors to GDP. By 2043, the service sector is projected to add US$22.5 billion to GDP, while manufacturing and ICT will add US$2.2 billion and US$1.9 billion respectively, though their percentage contributions to GDP will be lower than the Current Path forecast.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase carbon emissions to 4.4 million tons by 2043, a 267% increase from 1.2 million tons in 2019 and 38% higher than the Current Path estimate of 3.2 million tons.
• The sectors identified as most critical for unlocking rapid economic growth in the next two decades are manufacturing/transfers, free trade, agriculture, and leapfrogging, while demographics and infrastructure are projected to have the least impact on GDP per capita.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026namibia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }