NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES

This report presents the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Namibia, an integrated forecasting model combining 11 sectoral scenarios to project economic and social outcomes by 2043. The scenario predicts significant growth in GDP per capita and a reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions.

• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Namibia's GDP per capita is projected to increase by 152% from US$10,419 in 2019 to US$23,261 by 2043. This figure is US$7,968 higher than the Current Path forecast of US$15,293 and 31.2% higher than the projected average for upper middle-income countries in Africa (US$17,734) for the same year.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is expected to significantly reduce poverty in Namibia. By 2043, extreme poverty is projected to affect 1.09 million people (28.7% of the population), which would lift an additional 700,000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path forecast, representing an 18.3 percentage point decline.
• The overall size of the Namibian economy (GDP MER) is projected to rise to US$69.2 billion by 2043, a 324.5% increase from 2019. This is US$27.7 billion (66.8%) higher than the Current Path estimate of US$41.5 billion. The service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors are expected to be the largest contributors to GDP, with the service sector adding US$22.5 billion more than the Current Path forecast.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to result in higher carbon emissions. Total emissions are expected to reach 4.4 million tons by 2043, a 267% increase from 1.2 million tons in 2019 and 38% higher than the Current Path forecast of 3.2 million tons.
• The Manufacturing/Transfers, Free Trade, Agriculture, and Leapfrogging scenarios are identified as the primary drivers for rapid economic growth by 2043. Conversely, the Demographic and Infrastructure scenarios are projected to have the least impact on GDP per capita.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026namibia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }