Uganda Development Futures

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Uganda's development trajectory toward 2040, comparing a 'Current Path' against eight sectoral scenarios. It evaluates progress across demographics, health, education, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, and governance, concluding that while progress has been made, integrated policy interventions are required to meet the goals of Uganda Vision 2040.

• Uganda faces a significant youth bulge, with 53% of the adult population aged 15–29 in 2019. Without accelerated demographic transition, the country is projected to enter its demographic window of opportunity in 2052 rather than 2040.
• While universal primary and secondary education have increased enrolment, quality remains modest. The Education scenario aims to raise average test scores 6.3 points above the continental average for low-income countries by 2040.
• Infrastructure deficits persist in paved roads, rural electrification, and broadband. The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario is projected to increase electricity access by 21 percentage points and modern fuel stove usage by 24 percentage points above the Current Path by 2040.
• Agriculture is a primary economic driver, employing 55% of the labour force in 2019. The Agriculture scenario aims to reduce dependency on crop imports by 64.4% and meat imports by 2% compared to the Current Path by 2040.
• The manufacturing sector contributed 15.5% of GDP in 2019 but is hindered by high business costs and weak SMEs. The Manufacturing scenario is projected to increase the sector's contribution to GDP by 5 percentage points above the Current Path by 2040.
• Uganda's landlocked status and low productivity have limited trade growth. Full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is projected to reduce the trade deficit from 8.8% of GDP (Current Path) to 2.2% of GDP by 2040.
• Governance capacity in Uganda is below the average for low-income African countries. The Governance scenario projects an 11.7% improvement in the governance capacity score above the Current Path by 2040.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all eight sectoral interventions, is forecast to increase GDP per capita by US$2,472 above the Current Path by 2040, reaching US$6,925. This trajectory suggests the Vision 2040 target of US$9,500 GDP per capita could be achieved by 2045.
• Integrated interventions could significantly reduce extreme poverty. The Combined scenario is projected to lift 11.03 million more people out of poverty (at US$1.90) by 2040, representing a 13.9 percentage point decline compared to the Current Path.
• Economic growth under the Combined scenario is expected to increase carbon emissions to 26 million tons by 2040, a 30% increase over the Current Path, primarily driven by the Manufacturing and Governance scenarios.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). Uganda Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/uganda/

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. Uganda Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/uganda/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=Uganda Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/uganda/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026uganda, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Uganda Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/uganda/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }