Uganda Development Futures

The report evaluates Uganda's path toward middle-income status by 2040, analyzing scenarios across demographics, health, education, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, and governance. It finds that while the 'Current Path' falls short of Vision 2040 targets, a combined implementation of strategic interventions could lift 11.03 million more people out of poverty and raise GDP per capita to US$6,925 by 2040, reaching the US$9,500 target by 2045. Key drivers for growth include large-scale infrastructure and leapfrogging, which is identified as having the greatest impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. However, these gains are accompanied by a projected 30% increase in carbon emissions above the Current Path, primarily driven by manufacturing and governance improvements.

• The 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario is projected to have the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita and poverty reduction by 2040. This scenario would increase electricity access to 82% of the population and raise fixed broadband subscriptions to 21.7 per 100 people.
• Under a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, Uganda could lift an additional 11.03 million people out of extreme poverty (at the US$1.90 threshold) by 2040, representing a 13.9 percentage point decline compared to the Current Path.
• Uganda is not on track to reach its Vision 2040 GDP per capita target of US$9,500 by the target date on its Current Path. However, the Combined scenario could raise GDP per capita to US$6,925 by 2040 and reach the US$9,500 target by 2045.
• The combined effect of all eight sectoral scenarios is forecast to increase carbon emissions to 26 million tons by 2040, which is 30% higher than the Current Path. The majority of this increase is attributed to the Manufacturing and Governance scenarios.
• Uganda faces a significant 'youth bulge' of 53% as of 2019. Without concerted efforts to accelerate demographic transition, the country will not enter a potential demographic window of opportunity until 2052, rather than 2040.
• The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP is projected to increase by 5 percentage points above the Current Path by 2040 under the Manufacturing scenario, creating 1.8 million additional jobs compared to the Current Path.
• Full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is projected to dramatically improve Uganda's trade balance, reducing the trade deficit to 2.2% of GDP by 2040, compared to 8.8% on the Current Path.
• Uganda's governance capacity is currently below the average for low-income African countries. The Governance scenario projects an 11.7% improvement in the governance capacity score above the Current Path by 2040.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). Uganda Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/uganda/

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. Uganda Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/uganda/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=Uganda Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/uganda/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026uganda, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Uganda Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/uganda/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }