ISS African Futures

This report provides development forecasts for Sierra Leone up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' trajectory based on existing policies with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, energy transition, and the potential impacts of targeted interventions in agriculture, education, and governance.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Sierra Leone's population is expected to grow from 7.9 million in 2019 to 13.1 million by 2043, with urban and rural populations reaching near parity at 49% and 51% respectively.
• The Current Path forecast predicts GDP will reach US$12.8 billion and GDP per capita will rise to US$2,464 by 2043, though this remains significantly lower than the average for low-income African peer countries.
• Extreme poverty is projected to persist under the Current Path, with 5.5 million people (42.2% of the population) living below the US$1.90 per day poverty line by 2043.
• Gas is projected to be the dominant energy source by 2043, accounting for 92.7% of production, while hydropower and solar production are expected to decline in the Current Path forecast.
• The Agriculture scenario offers the most significant potential for poverty reduction, potentially lowering the proportion of people living below the US$1.90 poverty line to 27.5% by 2043.
• The Leapfrogging scenario projects that electricity access could reach 56.8% of the population by 2043, though a notable disparity between rural and urban access would remain.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is projected to reduce the proportion of poor people to 32.1% by 2043, although long-term competition may increase the trade deficit to 33.3% of GDP.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, projects a significant economic expansion to a GDP of US$27.5 billion and a reduction of extreme poverty to 10.3% of the population by 2043.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase across all scenarios, rising from 1 million tons in 2019 to 2 million tons by 2043 in the Current Path, and reaching 3.3 million tons in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }