Sierra Leone Development Futures

The report projects that Sierra Leone's population will grow to 13.1 million by 2043, with GDP increasing to US$12.8 billion under the Current Path. However, extreme poverty is expected to persist, with 42.2% of the population living below US$1.90 per day. Energy production is forecast to be dominated by gas (92.7%), and carbon emissions are projected to rise to 2 million tons. The report evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios, finding that agriculture and free trade have the highest potential to increase GDP per capita. In a Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, GDP per capita could reach US$4,304 and extreme poverty could drop to 10.3%, though carbon emissions would increase to 3.3 million tons.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Sierra Leone's population is projected to grow from 7.9 million in 2019 to 13.1 million by 2043, with 49% of the population residing in urban areas and 51% in rural areas.
• The Current Path forecast predicts GDP will reach US$12.8 billion and GDP per capita will rise to US$2,464 by 2043, though this remains significantly lower than the average for low-income peer countries in Africa.
• Extreme poverty is expected to remain high in the Current Path, with 5.5 million people (42.2% of the population) living below the US$1.90 per day poverty line by 2043.
• Energy production in the Current Path forecast will be heavily dominated by gas at 92.7% by 2043, while hydro and solar production are expected to decline.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase from 1 million tons in 2019 to 2 million tons by 2043 under the Current Path; the Agriculture scenario would result in the highest emissions at 2.5 million tons.
• The Agriculture scenario offers the most significant potential for poverty reduction, potentially lowering the proportion of people below the poverty line to 27.5% and increasing GDP per capita by an additional US$381.
• The Leapfrogging scenario is projected to increase electricity access to 56.8% of the population by 2043, though a notable disparity between rural and urban access will persist.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the AfCFTA, could reduce the proportion of poor people to 32.1% and increase GDP per capita to US$2,756 by 2043.
• In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the synergistic effect of all sectoral improvements would increase GDP per capita to US$4,304 and reduce the number of people in extreme poverty to 1.3 million (10.3% of the population).
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would result in a total GDP of US$27.5 billion by 2043, but would also lead to higher carbon emissions of 3.3 million tons compared to the Current Path.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Sierra Leone Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Sierra Leone Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Sierra Leone Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026sierra, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Sierra Leone Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SL}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }