ISS African Futures

This report provides a detailed development forecast for Togo up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' trajectory with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, energy transitions, and the potential impacts of targeted interventions in agriculture, education, and governance.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Togo's population is projected to grow from 8.1 million in 2019 to 13.8 million by 2043, with urbanisation increasing to 53% of the population.
• Togo's GDP is estimated to reach US$25.8 billion by 2043 on the Current Path, with GDP per capita rising to US$3,524. The service sector is expected to remain the primary driver of job creation, contributing US$12.7 billion (49.3% of GDP) by 2043.
• Extreme poverty (below US$1.90 per day) is projected to persist on the Current Path, with 4.6 million people (33.1% of the population) remaining poor by 2043. This represents an absolute increase of 0.6 million poor people compared to 2019 levels due to population growth.
• Togo is transitioning its energy production toward renewables; by 2043, solar energy is projected to constitute 80% of energy production. Despite this shift, carbon emissions are forecast to increase from 1 million tons in 2019 to 3 million tons by 2043.
• The Agriculture scenario offers the most significant potential for poverty reduction, potentially lifting an additional 1.6 million people out of extreme poverty and transforming Togo from a food import-dependent nation to a net exporter with a balance of 12.7% of total agricultural demand by 2043.
• The Leapfrogging scenario projects that electricity access could reach 80% of the population by 2043, providing power to an additional 1.2 million people compared to the Current Path, and increasing mobile broadband subscriptions to 152.8 per 100 people.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the AfCFTA, could increase GDP per capita to US$3,864 by 2043 and reduce the number of poor people to 3.8 million (27.3% of the population), although it may increase the trade deficit in the long term due to competition.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, projects a dramatic economic expansion with GDP reaching US$51 billion and GDP per capita rising to US$5,969 by 2043. Under this scenario, extreme poverty would drop to 1.56 million people (12.1% of the population).
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would lead to a significant increase in carbon emissions, reaching 5 million tons by 2043, compared to 3.5 million tons on the Current Path.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TG

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TG.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TG |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TG}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }