Togo Development Futures

The report projects Togo's development to 2043, highlighting a transition toward solar energy and urbanisation, while noting that population growth may outpace poverty reduction on the current path. It assesses how targeted improvements in agriculture, trade, and governance could significantly boost GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty, though such growth is linked to increased carbon emissions.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Togo's population is projected to grow from 8.1 million in 2019 to 13.8 million by 2043, with urban residents making up 53% of the population by that date.
• Togo's GDP per capita is forecast to increase to US$3,524 by 2043 on the Current Path, but the absolute number of people living below the US$1.90 poverty line is expected to rise to 4.6 million (33.1% of the population) because population growth exceeds development progress.
• Energy production is expected to shift toward renewables, with solar energy projected to constitute 80% of energy production by 2043.
• Despite the shift to solar energy, carbon emissions are projected to increase from 1 million tons in 2019 to 3 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, likely due to increased industrial activity.
• The Agriculture scenario offers the most significant potential for poverty reduction, potentially lifting an additional 1.6 million people out of extreme poverty and transforming Togo into a net exporter of agricultural products by 2032.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the AfCFTA, could increase GDP per capita to US$3,864 by 2043 and reduce the number of poor people to 3.8 million, although it may increase the trade deficit in the long term due to competition.
• The Leapfrogging scenario projects that electricity access could reach 80% of the population by 2043, providing power to an additional 1.2 million people compared to the Current Path.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all sectoral improvements, could nearly double the economy's size to US$51 billion by 2043 and reduce the poverty rate to 12.1% (1.56 million people).
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would result in a significant increase in carbon emissions, reaching 5 million tons by 2043.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Togo Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TG

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Togo Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TG.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Togo Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TG |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026togo, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Togo Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=TG}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }