ISS African Futures

This report provides a development forecast for the Republic of the Congo up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' (CP) trajectory based on existing policies with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis focuses on demographics, economics, poverty, health, and energy, highlighting the country's heavy reliance on oil and its high levels of urbanization.

• The Republic of the Congo's economy is heavily dependent on oil, with crude oil accounting for more than 80% of exports and 97.2% of all energy produced in the country in 2019. This dependency makes the economy vulnerable to volatile international oil prices.
• The country is highly urbanized, with 67.4% of the population living in urban areas in 2019, a figure projected to reach nearly 75% by 2043. Population growth is also significant, with the total population expected to grow from 5.3 million in 2019 to 9 million by 2043.
• Poverty rates are high; in 2019, the poverty rate was 66.2%. Under the Current Path forecast, this rate is expected to peak at 71.5% in 2025 before declining to 43.8% by 2043.
• Agricultural productivity is low, characterized by small-scale subsistence farming. The gap between agricultural production and demand grew from 300,000 tons of crops in 1990 to 900,000 tons by 2019, and is projected to reach 3.8 million tons by 2043 under the Current Path.
• Electricity access is severely limited in rural areas, with only 18.3% of the rural population having access in 2019. The 'Leapfrogging' scenario suggests this could be raised to 75% by 2043.
• Government effectiveness is rated as low due to endemic corruption. In 2019, the country ranked 36th out of 54 African countries for government effectiveness with a score of 1.4 out of 5.
• The 'Free Trade' scenario, based on the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is projected to be the most effective single scenario for raising GDP per capita, increasing it from US$8,449 (Current Path) to US$9,131 by 2043.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates all 11 sectoral interventions, would be transformative, raising GDP per capita to US$12,917 by 2043 (a 52.9% increase over the Current Path) and reducing the poverty rate to 27.3%.
• Carbon emissions are projected to rise from 2019 levels to 4.07 million tons by 2043 under the Current Path. While the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario increases emissions by 800,000 tons over the Current Path, the growth in emissions (19.5%) is significantly lower than the projected growth in GDP (65%).

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }