Zimbabwe

The report analyzes Zimbabwe's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) with various sectoral and combined scenarios. It identifies manufacturing as the most critical driver for GDP growth and poverty reduction. While the Current Path suggests slow progress toward Sustainable Development Goals, the 'Combined scenario'—integrating reforms in governance, infrastructure, health, and trade—could significantly increase GDP per capita, reduce extreme poverty to 3%, and transition the energy system toward renewables, drastically cutting carbon emissions.

• Under the 'Current Path', Zimbabwe is unlikely to meet its Vision 2030 target of 7% to 10% annual GDP growth, with projections showing an average of 5% between 2023 and 2030.
• The manufacturing sector is identified as the most impactful individual driver for economic improvement; its prioritisation could raise GDP per capita to US$7,040 by 2043 and reduce the extreme poverty rate to 9%.
• A 'Combined scenario' involving multi-sectoral interventions could push GDP per capita (PPP) to US$9,470 by 2043 and reduce the extreme poverty rate to 3% (610,000 people), aligning with SDG 1.
• Zimbabwe's agricultural sector faces severe food insecurity, with a crop production deficit of 2.2 million metric tons in 2023; this deficit is projected to increase nearly fivefold to 9.9 million metric tons by 2043 on the Current Path.
• The transition to cleaner energy and technological leapfrogging in the Combined scenario could reduce carbon emissions from 2.5 million tons in 2023 to approximately 760,000 tons by 2043, whereas they would rise to 7.3 million tons on the Current Path.
• Energy production in the Combined scenario is projected to reach 259.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, creating an energy surplus of 112.6 million barrels of oil equivalent and reducing reliance on fossil fuels and hydro.
• The informal sector remains a dominant economic force, contributing 54% of GDP and 40% of employment in 2023; the Combined scenario aims to shift 31% of this contribution to the formal economy by 2043.
• Implementation of the AfCFTA scenario could reduce Zimbabwe's trade deficit to 3.6% of GDP by 2043, compared to 5.5% on the Current Path, though it may cause a 'crowding-out' effect on manufacturing exports.
• Public health improvements in the Demographics and Health scenario could reduce the infant mortality rate to 15 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2043, compared to 23 on the Current Path.
• Governance reforms in the Governance scenario could increase the composite governance index to 0.62 by 2043, surpassing the average for lower-middle-income African countries, compared to 0.55 on the Current Path.

APA

Ngundu, M., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/zimbabwe/

Chicago

Ngundu, Marvellous, and Jakkie Cilliers. Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/zimbabwe/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngundu |first1=Marvellous |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Zimbabwe |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/zimbabwe/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngundu2026zimbabwe, author = {Ngundu, Marvellous and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Zimbabwe}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/zimbabwe/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }