Senegal Development Futures

The report evaluates Senegal's development prospects to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast with eight sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. Key findings indicate that while GDP is projected to grow, significant challenges remain in poverty, education, and infrastructure. The most impactful scenarios for improving GDP per capita and reducing extreme poverty are the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Manufacturing, and Governance scenarios. A combined holistic approach could increase GDP by 86% over the current path and reduce extreme poverty to 3.2% of the population by 2043, though this would be accompanied by a 46.2% increase in carbon emissions compared to the current path.

• On the Current Path, Senegal's population is projected to double from 16.3 million in 2019 to 28.2 million by 2043, while GDP is estimated to more than quadruple to US$132 billion.
• The Manufacturing scenario is identified as having the highest potential to reduce extreme poverty, potentially lowering the number of poor people to 5.1 million (18% of the population) by 2043, compared to 6.6 million (22.8%) on the Current Path.
• The AfCFTA scenario is projected to have the greatest impact on GDP per capita, increasing it to US$8,016 by 2043, which is 10.7% higher than the Current Path forecast.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects a significant economic boost, with GDP rising to US$245.6 billion (86% higher than the Current Path) and extreme poverty falling to 3.2% of the population by 2043.
• Senegal's education system faces significant quality and access issues; in 2019, the literacy rate was 53.5% and the mean years of education for adults aged 15-24 was 5.5 years.
• The Agriculture scenario could increase annual crop production to 14.5 million tons by 2043, reducing net crop imports to 36.4%, compared to a projected 47.3% on the Current Path.
• Infrastructure improvements in the Large Infrastructure scenario could increase electricity access to 96.7% by 2043 and raise the proportion of households using modern cooking fuel to 86%.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would result in total carbon emissions of 19 million tons by 2043, which is 46.2% higher than the Current Path forecast.
• Energy production in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to be dominated by renewable energy, which would constitute 60% of total energy production by 2043.
• Senegal's informal economy is substantial, with 96% of the economically active population in the informal sector as of 2022; it is projected to decline to 17.2% of GDP by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Senegal Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/senegal/

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Senegal Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/senegal/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Senegal Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/senegal/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026senegal, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Senegal Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/senegal/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }