Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation

The report concludes that piecemeal reform is insufficient for Somalia's development, advocating for an integrated approach. It identifies state capacity and human capital as the most critical levers for growth, noting that a 'Combined scenario' of improvements could increase GDP (MER) by US$18.9 billion and lift 6.1 million people out of extreme poverty by 2043. Key recommendations include strengthening public institutions, expanding the manufacturing and agro-processing sectors to reduce reliance on live animal exports, and adopting pragmatic urban governance to manage displacement-driven urbanization.

• Coordinated action across multiple sectors yields significantly higher development gains than isolated reforms. A 'Combined scenario' involving integrated improvements is projected to increase GDP (MER) by US$18.9 billion, raise GDP per capita by US$903, extend life expectancy by three years, and result in 6.1 million fewer people living in extreme poverty by 2043 compared to the 'Current Path'.
• Education and governance are the most effective levers for accelerating poverty reduction and increasing GDP per capita. However, the primary obstacle in governance is a lack of state capacity; while formal institutions exist, their operational depth is limited and they rely heavily on external technical and financial support.
• Somalia's economy is hindered by a lack of structural transformation, with activity concentrated in low-productivity services and agriculture. To achieve sustained development, the country must expand its manufacturing and agro-processing sectors, utilize irrigable land, and develop the 'blue economy' to reduce its vulnerability and reliance on live animal exports to Gulf markets.
• Rapid, displacement-driven urbanization caused by conflict and climate shocks requires a pragmatic governance approach. Because the state lacks the capacity for conventional state-led urban planning, policy should work within existing hybrid governance arrangements to provide housing security and livelihoods for internally displaced persons and returnees.
• Fiscal sustainability depends on strengthening domestic revenue mobilization to reduce dependence on donor financing. This requires expanding the tax base, formalizing economic activity, and creating a predictable regulatory environment to attract private and diaspora investment.

APA

van Rooyen, M. (2026). Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SO&topic=05-conclusion

Chicago

van Rooyen, Michelle. Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SO&topic=05-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Rooyen |first1=Michelle |title=Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SO&topic=05-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanrooyen2026somalia, author = {van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SO&topic=05-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }