Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation

This report concludes that Somalia's development requires coordinated, cross-sectoral action rather than piecemeal reform, highlighting that integrated improvements in education and governance are the most powerful levers for reducing poverty and increasing GDP per capita.

• Coordinated action across sectors is more effective than piecemeal reform. A 'Combined scenario' of integrated improvements is projected to increase GDP (MER) by US$18.9 billion, raise GDP per capita by US$903, extend life expectancy by three years, and reduce the number of Somalis living in extreme poverty by 6.1 million by 2043 compared to the Current Path.
• Education and governance are identified as the most impactful drivers for development and poverty reduction. However, state capacity is a critical bottleneck; while formal institutions exist, their operational depth is limited and they rely heavily on external technical and financial support.
• Somalia's economy is characterized by low-productivity agriculture and services, with a heavy reliance on live animal exports to a few Gulf partners. Structural transformation requires expanding manufacturing, agro-processing, and the blue economy, alongside diversifying trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area.
• Rapid, displacement-driven urbanization caused by conflict and climate shocks is creating vulnerabilities in cities. Because the state lacks the capacity for conventional state-led urban planning, the report recommends a pragmatic approach using hybrid governance arrangements to provide housing and services for internally displaced persons and returnees.

APA

van Rooyen, M. (2026). Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SO&topic=05-conclusion

Chicago

van Rooyen, Michelle. Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SO&topic=05-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Rooyen |first1=Michelle |title=Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SO&topic=05-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanrooyen2026somalia, author = {van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{Somalia: Conclusion and Recommendation}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SO&topic=05-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }