Search Climate Insights Directory

The document analyzes global oil demand scenarios from the IEA and CER, concluding that structural shifts in road transport and increasing climate policies will lead to a permanent decline in oil demand starting before 2030. It highlights that while road transport is the primary driver, other sectors like plastics, aviation, and shipping will also contribute to demand destruction in the medium term, creating a shrinking market for Canadian oil producers.

The report argues that the US can achieve a 98% reduction in transportation CO2 emissions by 2050 through a combination of rapid vehicle electrification, improved energy efficiency, and the use of low-carbon liquid fuels for hard-to-decarbonize sectors. It presents a 'Core' scenario where all new light-duty vehicles are zero-emission by 2035 and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2040. The analysis emphasizes that while technological shifts are necessary, a truly equitable transition requires behavioral changes to reduce overall energy demand, such as increased use of public transit and active transportation. The report concludes that these pathways are economically viable, with net costs of less than 1% of GDP, and would yield significant public health and climate benefits.

The document examines how the Russia-Ukraine war has destabilized energy markets, undermining Russia's role as an 'energy superpower' and creating significant economic pressure on the Global South. It presents three scenarios: 'Stable high' prices, 'Persistent volatility', and 'Business as usual', analyzing how each affects national budgets, regional stability in the Middle East and Africa, and the global transition to renewable energy. The authors argue that while the crisis may incentivize some decarbonization, it also risks locking in fossil fuel production in the Global South and prioritizing immediate energy security over Paris Agreement goals.

The document introduces a study on the development prospects of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It highlights the region's challenges, including high poverty, poor state capacity, and a heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture in an area where 70% of the land is arid or semi-arid. The report aims to establish a 'Current Path' forecast and develop scenarios for a sustainable and peaceful development trajectory.

The report examines the 'paradox of plenty' in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where vast natural resources coexist with extreme poverty and political instability. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform, the document aims to project the country's development path to 2050 and assess how specific interventions could help the government achieve long-term growth targets.

The report outlines three scenarios for Tunisia's development to 2040: 'Going for Growth', which prioritises industrial production and FDI; 'Leapfrogging', which focuses on ICT and digital innovation; and 'Sustainability & Equality', which emphasises environmental stability and social protection. Across all scenarios, governance interventions are identified as the primary driver of GDP growth relative to the current path.

The report demonstrates that Europe can achieve a 94-96% clean power system by 2035 at no extra cost compared to stated policies, provided wind and solar deployment quadruples. This transition would enable wider electrification, potentially halving fossil fuel consumption by 2030 and saving between €530 billion and €1 trillion by 2035. Key requirements include expanding interconnection, deploying electrolysers for green hydrogen, and phasing out coal by 2030 and unabated baseload gas after 2025.

The California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) 3.3.1 update finds that current policy commitments will leave California's 2030 emissions nearly 20% above the SB 32 target. To address this, Energy Innovation proposes a 'Deeper Decarbonization Scenario' focusing on rapid electrification of vehicles, appliances, and industry, alongside a strengthened clean energy standard. This approach is projected to lower 2030 emissions to 230 MMT of CO2e and generate significant economic and public health benefits, including $60 billion in monetized social benefits by 2050, while reducing reliance on unproven carbon dioxide removal technologies.

The study evaluates three scenarios for the EU ETS in aviation: the European Commission's intra-European proposal, a 'semi scope' covering all departing flights, and a 'full scope' covering all incoming and departing flights. It finds that expanding the scope to all flights would reduce emissions by 113% compared to the Commission's proposal and generate significantly higher revenues—up to 107€ billion over 15 years—while carbon costs would remain a small fraction of airline operating costs. The document argues against reliance on the UN's Corsia offsetting scheme, citing its uncertainty and potential to reduce emission savings by 77% compared to expectations.

The report finds that total EU methane emissions were 15.2 Mt in 2019, with livestock agriculture contributing 53%, waste 27%, and energy 13%. While a business-as-usual trend suggests a 13.4% reduction by 2030, the report estimates a maximum theoretical reduction potential of 49% to 68%. Achieving the 30% (Pledge) and 45% (Science) targets requires significant behavioral changes in livestock agriculture, specifically a shift toward healthier diets with lower meat and dairy consumption, alongside technical measures in the energy and waste sectors.

The report demonstrates that nature-related risks are material for African financial institutions, particularly in the agriculture and extractives sectors. Using the TNFD's LEAP approach, it finds that ambitious nature-positive transitions could lead to equity value changes between +2% and -5% and loan book changes between +0.3% and -0.6% by 2030. While aggregate portfolio impacts appear small due to limited sector exposure, specific risks in agriculture and extractives could double expected credit losses for some portfolios. The report highlights critical physical risks, such as water stress affecting 25% of African countries and habitat loss threatening ecotourism in Eastern and Southern Africa. It concludes that African financial institutions face significant capacity and data gaps in implementing nature-related disclosures and recommends an integrated approach that combines climate and nature risk management.

The steel industry faces a conflict between growth outlooks and 1.5°C climate targets, requiring demand to peak between 2035 and 2040. Delaying decarbonization until 2030 would necessitate a 50% reduction in demand by 2050 to remain climate-aligned, posing a risk to primary steel production. To avoid this, the industry must invest in zero-carbon technologies like green hydrogen, with significant opportunities for producers in Australia, Brazil, and South Africa.

The report argues that Canada's electricity systems must become "bigger, cleaner, and smarter" to serve as the backbone of a net zero economy by 2050. It identifies 'safe bets'—commercially available solutions like wind, solar, and energy efficiency—and 'wild cards'—emerging or high-barrier technologies like small modular reactors and carbon capture. The analysis emphasizes that while technical pathways exist, significant social, political, and institutional barriers, such as interregional grid integration and local opposition, must be overcome. It also highlights the unique challenges faced by remote communities and the necessity of Indigenous leadership in the energy transition.

The report argues that Canada's electrical systems must become "plus grands, plus propres et plus intelligents" (larger, cleaner, and smarter) to support national carbon neutrality by 2050. It identifies 'safe bets' (valeurs sûres)—such as expanding wind and solar capacity, improving energy efficiency, and phasing out unabated fossil fuels—and 'risky bets' (paris risqués), including small modular reactors and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The analysis emphasizes that while technical solutions exist, significant social, institutional, and political barriers remain, particularly regarding interregional grid integration and Indigenous leadership in the energy transition.

The study finds that California can reliably meet an 85% clean electricity target by 2030 using portfolios primarily composed of wind, solar, and battery storage. Through 264 PLEXOS simulations, the authors tested three portfolios—Base Case, Diverse Clean Resources, and High Electrification—against stressors including gas and coal retirements, low hydro availability, and extreme weather. Results indicate the system remains robust even under simultaneous stressors, though it remains dependent on a strategic amount of in-state natural gas and economic imports. The report emphasizes that diversifying resources with offshore wind and geothermal reduces the need for solar and storage and improves grid stability by lowering instantaneous inverter-based generation. While demand flexibility can offset some storage needs, the study concludes that further nodal transmission and grid stability analyses are required for a complete reliability assessment.

The paper examines the limitations of 'green growth' and absolute decoupling, highlighting how rebound effects and problem shifting hinder environmental progress. It advocates for a transition to 'strong sustainable consumption governance' that combines technological efficiency with modal shifts and absolute reductions in high-impact consumption. The authors emphasize the need to measure consumption-based emissions—which often occur outside the borders of high-income countries—and to reconcile ecological limits with social aspirations to ensure a fair distribution of resources.

The document outlines the role of BECCS as a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) method, noting its technical potential to remove 0.5-11.3 GtCO2 annually by 2050. However, it warns that large-scale deployment could threaten food security, biodiversity, and Indigenous rights, potentially requiring land areas twice the size of Egypt by 2100 in 1.5°C pathways. The briefing emphasizes that delaying near-term emissions reductions increases reliance on BECCS, thereby escalating land-use pressures.

The report examines the security implications of climate change in the South and East China Seas, focusing on the interplay between regional political cohesion and food prices. It presents four scenarios—ranging from high cooperation and low prices to high fragmentation and food insecurity—to illustrate potential risks, including social unrest, the failure of governance, and increased Chinese maritime aggression. The analysis emphasizes that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions and socio-economic inequalities in Southeast and East Asia.

The report assesses the climate security landscape of the Levant, focusing on the interplay between governance, cooperation, and technology. It identifies severe heatwaves, rainfall reduction, and water scarcity as primary physical risks. Through four scenarios, the authors argue that while large-scale projects require stable governance and cross-border agreements, the widespread availability of small-scale adaptive technologies could provide a critical resilience pathway for populations in states with poor or predatory governance.

The document outlines the technical framework for analyzing a transition to 100% renewable energy in U.S. Climate Alliance states. It describes the use of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) models to simulate various policy scenarios, including a '100% RES scenario' and a 'Clean Electricity Standard scenario'. The methodology includes specific retirement schedules for coal plants in Michigan and Minnesota, as well as a collaboration with Greenlink Analytics to model socioeconomic impacts, including public health benefits, macroeconomic shifts in employment and GDP, and changes to household energy burdens.