Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation

The report argues that the US can achieve a 98% reduction in transportation CO2 emissions by 2050 through a combination of rapid vehicle electrification, improved energy efficiency, and the use of low-carbon liquid fuels for hard-to-decarbonize sectors. It presents a 'Core' scenario where all new light-duty vehicles are zero-emission by 2035 and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2040. The analysis emphasizes that while technological shifts are necessary, a truly equitable transition requires behavioral changes to reduce overall energy demand, such as increased use of public transit and active transportation. The report concludes that these pathways are economically viable, with net costs of less than 1% of GDP, and would yield significant public health and climate benefits.

• The United States can reduce transportation CO2 emissions by 98 percent relative to 2020 levels by 2050 through the phaseout of petroleum and rapid electrification.
• To achieve decarbonization, the report assumes all new light-duty vehicle sales must be zero-emissions by 2035, and all new medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sales must be zero-emissions by 2040.
• It is economically feasible to reduce fossil-based liquid fuel use by 50 percent by 2040 and by nearly 85 percent by 2050 compared to current levels.
• The transition to electric vehicles will significantly increase power grid demand, with the transportation sector accounting for nearly 25 percent of economy-wide power demand by 2050.
• By 2050, jet fuel is expected to constitute the majority of remaining liquid fuel use, accounting for approximately two-thirds of the total.
• In the Core scenario, over half of the remaining liquid fuels in 2050 would be produced from biofuels, with synthetic fuels accounting for 7 percent.
• A 'Low Energy Demand' scenario demonstrates that behavioral shifts—such as a 40% reduction in driving and doubling miles from transit and rail—can further reduce electricity generation needs by 34% and hydrogen use by 30% by 2050.
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS), particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), is estimated to be responsible for about 13 percent of economy-wide emissions reductions relative to the reference scenario.
• The net system costs for the Core scenario are modest, estimated at $45 billion by 2030 and $155 billion by 2050, representing less than 1 percent of GDP.
• The transition to zero-emission vehicles and renewable electricity could generate over $1.2 trillion in public health savings between 2020 and 2050 by avoiding premature deaths and asthma cases.

APA

de Moura, M. C. P. (2022). Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-white-paper.pdf

Chicago

de Moura, Maria Cecilia Pinto. Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2022. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-white-paper.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Moura |first1=Maria Cecilia Pinto |title=Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=September 2022 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-white-paper.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{demoura2022lowcarbon, author = {de Moura, Maria Cecilia Pinto}, title = {{Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-white-paper.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }