Methane reduction potential in the EU Between 2020 and 2030

The report finds that total EU methane emissions were 15.2 Mt in 2019, with livestock agriculture contributing 53%, waste 27%, and energy 13%. While a business-as-usual trend suggests a 13.4% reduction by 2030, the report estimates a maximum theoretical reduction potential of 49% to 68%. Achieving the 30% (Pledge) and 45% (Science) targets requires significant behavioral changes in livestock agriculture, specifically a shift toward healthier diets with lower meat and dairy consumption, alongside technical measures in the energy and waste sectors.

• In 2019, total anthropogenic methane emissions in the EU were 15.2 megatonne (Mt), representing approximately 5% of global anthropogenic methane emissions.
• Livestock agriculture is the largest source of EU methane emissions at 53%, followed by the waste sector at 27% and the energy sector at 13%. Within livestock, 82% of emissions are caused by enteric fermentation.
• Under a business-as-usual (BAU) trend with current policies, EU methane emissions are projected to decline by 13.4% between 2020 and 2030, which is insufficient to meet the 30% Global Methane Pledge or the 45% science-based target.
• The highest theoretical reduction potential in the livestock sector comes from EU citizens switching to an average advised diet with lower meat and dairy consumption, which could reduce sectoral emissions by 29% to 37% and overall EU emissions by 15% to 19%.
• The waste sector has a high theoretical reduction potential of 79% to 90%, driven by the reduction of food loss and waste, the separation and use of organic waste, and the stabilisation of organic waste before landfilling.
• Domestic energy sector methane reduction potential is estimated at 16% to 37%, with leak detection and repair (LDAR) and coal mine methane management providing the largest contributions.
• While domestic energy emissions are relatively low, there is significant potential to reduce methane from imported fossil fuels by 48% to 87% (4.7 to 8.5 Mt/year) through the adoption of methane emission standards for producers.
• The 'Maximum scenario', which includes all identified mitigation measures and a 100% consumer switch to advised diets, indicates a total EU methane reduction potential of 49% to 68% by 2030.
• The 'Pledge scenario' (30% reduction) and 'Science scenario' (45% reduction) both demonstrate that targets cannot be met without policies driving behavioral and technical changes in livestock agriculture.

APA

van der Veen, R., de Vries, M., van de Pol, J., van Santen, W., Sinke, P., de Vries, J., Kampman, B., & Bergsma, G. (2022). Methane reduction potential in the EU Between 2020 and 2030. Changing Markets Foundation. https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CE_Delft_210502_Methane_reduction_potential_in_the_EU_Def.pdf

Chicago

van der Veen, Reinier, Maarten de Vries, Jan van de Pol, Ward van Santen, Pelle Sinke, Joukje de Vries, Bettina Kampman, and Geert Bergsma. Methane reduction potential in the EU Between 2020 and 2030. Changing Markets Foundation, 2022. https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CE_Delft_210502_Methane_reduction_potential_in_the_EU_Def.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{vanderveen2022methane, author = {van der Veen, Reinier and de Vries, Maarten and van de Pol, Jan and van Santen, Ward and Sinke, Pelle and de Vries, Joukje and Kampman, Bettina and Bergsma, Geert}, title = {{Methane reduction potential in the EU Between 2020 and 2030}}, institution = {Changing Markets Foundation}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CE_Delft_210502_Methane_reduction_potential_in_the_EU_Def.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }