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The GCF Secretariat report for 2026 details progress in enhancing country ownership, delivering impact, and institutional strengthening. Key achievements include the launch of a revised Accreditation Framework, the establishment of regional presence in five locations, and the development of a new Commitment Authority Framework to optimize investment capacity. The report also tracks programming metrics, noting 29 funding proposals submitted to the iTAP and the approval of projects for underserved countries like Bahamas, Chad, and Jamaica.

The paper argues that the armed organization to which a person belongs is the most powerful predictor of whether they become a perpetrator of conflict-related sexual violence. Using datasets like SVAC and ACLED, it finds that while state forces have historically been more frequent perpetrators, there is a recent trend of increasing reports involving rebel groups. The author identifies key organizational risk factors, such as forced recruitment and child soldiering, which use sexual violence as a socialization tool for group cohesion. Conversely, restraint is linked to strong internal governance, such as electoral leader selection and ideological norms. The paper suggests that policy interventions should target organizational structures and use risk factors as early warning indicators rather than focusing solely on individual perpetrators.

The paper argues that LGBTQI+ individuals are specifically targeted for their nonconformity to cis-heteronormative norms, with visibility acting as a primary risk factor. It highlights that such violence occurs on a continuum across public and private spheres, perpetrated by state actors, armed groups, and family members. The authors advocate for an intersectional framework to avoid homogenizing the LGBTQI+ community and emphasize the agency of survivors in creating their own support systems.

A World Weather Attribution study finds that climate change has shifted extreme heat earlier into the year in Saudi Arabia, making May temperatures in Mecca as dangerous as summer temperatures were between 1970 and 1990. The analysis indicates that peak May temperatures are now approximately 2°C hotter and average May temperatures are approximately 3.5°C higher than in a preindustrial climate. This trend increases the risk of heat stroke and exhaustion for millions of pilgrims, with projections suggesting that if global temperatures rise by 3°C, 97% of Hajj pilgrimages would occur during periods of dangerous heat.

Since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, Russia has restructured its African security engagements, moving from the high-profile combat deployments of the Wagner Group to a more centralised model controlled by the Kremlin and the GRU. This new approach prioritises 'regime survival' services, including elite protection, training, and intelligence sharing, while expanding covert information warfare through entities like Russia House and the African Initiative. Despite these efforts, Russia's footprint is constrained by the resource demands of its war in Ukraine and risks of 'blowback' from African governments due to human rights abuses and deceptive recruitment schemes like 'Alabuga Start'.

The author contends that recent violations of international law—including US actions in Venezuela and conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza—demonstrate the impotence of violence. The text advocates for a shift toward 'non-violence' as a political tool and a global common good, linking peace to social and environmental justice. It calls on the European Union to champion this approach by upholding the UN Charter, the Paris Agreement, and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The author contends that recent military actions by the US, Russia, and Israel signal a collapse of international law and a return to the 'law of the strongest'. The text argues that violence is a symptom of powerlessness and suggests that Europe should instead promote a 'new' paradigm based on non-violence, the UN's 2030 Agenda, and the Paris Climate Agreement to achieve sustainable peace and climate justice.

The report identifies three primary typologies of online hate speech in Jordan: gender-based abuse, religious hate speech (primarily targeting Shia communities), and exclusionary nationalist discourse. It highlights how regional conflicts in Gaza and Syria act as trigger events for spikes in hostility and notes that users exploit 'Arabizi' to bypass inadequate Arabic-language moderation. The study also criticizes the 2023 Cybercrime Law for lacking precise definitions, leading to potential over-criminalization of expression.

The document analyzes the correlation between real-world violence in Suweyda and the surge of anti-Druze hate speech on social media, highlighting the role of international accounts and AI-generated misinformation in inciting further conflict.

A super-rapid attribution study by World Weather Attribution finds that human-induced climate change has significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of a five-year drought in Iran and the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The analysis shows that while low-rainfall years are natural to the region, the current 'extreme' to 'exceptional' drought conditions would have been very rare in a pre-industrial climate. The study highlights that warming increases evaporative demand, prolonging droughts and compounding the effects of socio-economic stressors like unsustainable groundwater extraction and water-intensive agriculture.

The policy brief examines how water scarcity empowers non-state armed groups, delegitimizes state authority, and fuels transboundary disputes, while proposing that the US utilize its technological leadership and mediation experience to maintain geopolitical stability.

The briefing examines the 'Middle East Paradoxon,' where Israel faces increased internal instability and lost soft power despite a lack of immediate military threats from its Arab neighbors. It analyzes the fallout from a September 9, 2025, Israeli strike in Doha, which triggered rare Arab unity and accelerated a strategic realignment away from the United States. The author discusses the 'Trump Peace Plan' for Gaza as a rupture that may bring hostages home but faces significant risks of derailment due to its vague nature and opposition from Israeli ultranationalists. Additionally, the text highlights a new nuclear shield agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and the potential for Syria to become a site of power struggle between Turkey and Israel following the toppling of Bashar al-Asad.

Twenty years after the 7/7 bombings, Islamist extremism remains a significant security threat in the UK, though it has shifted from top-down, group-organised attacks to grassroots, self-initiated actions by loosely connected individuals. The landscape is now characterised by a mix of traditional ideologies and hybridised forms of extremism amplified by social media. While some global movements have transitioned toward nationalist local governance, others, particularly in Africa, are expanding. A critical emerging trend is the radicalisation of minors, with a significant portion of recent terrorism convictions involving children and a rise in Prevent referrals for youth.

The document examines the evolution of humanitarian communication, focusing on the tension between emotional storytelling and technical data. It analyzes the impact of generative AI on the authenticity of testimonies and images, the risks of 'infoglut' and fake news in conflict zones, and the intersectional vulnerabilities of women and LGBTQIA+ individuals facing climate change, specifically in Kenya.

The report finds that 676 million women, or 17% of the global female population, lived within 50 km of a deadly conflict event in 2024, more than doubling the number since 1990. It highlights that while high-intensity conflicts gain more media attention, medium-intensity protracted conflicts are strongly correlated with lower Human Development Index (HDI) scores. The brief identifies Bangladesh as having the highest absolute number of women exposed to conflict, while 100% of women in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel/Palestine were affected. Using Nigeria as a case study, it demonstrates significant subnational variation in conflict intensity and types of violence, including state-based, communal, and criminal violence.

The document examines the uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration's approach to foreign aid and global security. It highlights a 90-day freeze on all U.S. foreign assistance and the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization. The text notes a divide in perception, where populations in BRICS nations are more positive about Trump's presidency for global peace compared to those in the EU and UK, despite an overall increase in global conflicts and expansionist rhetoric regarding territories like Greenland and Panama.

The document examines the dual-use nature of AI in peacebuilding, highlighting its ability to forecast violence and scale civic inclusion while warning against risks like digital surveillance, algorithmic bias, and the erosion of human-led diplomacy. It argues for a hybrid approach that combines AI tools with local expertise and strict ethical governance to ensure technology supports stability rather than deepening conflict.

The report examines the dual-use nature of AI in peacebuilding, highlighting its potential to enhance conflict forecasting, real-time mapping, and inclusive dialogue while warning against risks such as algorithmic bias, surveillance, and the erosion of human facilitation skills. It emphasizes that AI's effectiveness depends on a healthy information environment and a rights-based approach to design and governance.

The document examines the dual-use nature of AI in peacebuilding, highlighting its potential to improve early warning systems, civic engagement, and humanitarian mapping while warning against risks such as digital repression, algorithmic bias, and the erosion of human oversight. It argues that for AI to support peace rather than instability, it must be governed by human rights principles, transparency, and community participation.

The document explores the dual-use nature of AI in conflict zones, highlighting its potential to improve early warning systems, inclusive dialogue, and humanitarian mapping, while warning against its use for surveillance, disinformation, and repression. It argues that for AI to effectively support peacebuilding, it must be governed by human rights principles, transparency, and local community participation.