Preventing Water-Related Conflict to Promote US National Security and Build Global Stability

The policy brief examines how water scarcity empowers non-state armed groups, delegitimizes state authority, and fuels transboundary disputes, while proposing that the US utilize its technological leadership and mediation experience to maintain geopolitical stability.

• Global water stress is increasing, with 4 billion people facing extreme water scarcity for one month annually as of 2016. By 2050, water demand is projected to rise by 20% to 25%, which will place an additional 1 billion people in high-water stress areas.
• Transboundary water disputes are intensifying, particularly regarding dam construction on the Nile and Mekong rivers. In 2023, water-related conflicts increased by 50% compared to 2022, rising from 231 to 347.
• Water scarcity is being exploited by non-state armed groups and terrorists for recruitment and profit. For instance, ISIS recruited roughly three times more fighters from semiarid areas than riparian ones, and Mexican cartels profit by stealing and reselling public water supplies.
• Water stress contributes to state instability and the delegitimization of government authority, fueling protests in countries such as Iran, Morocco, and India. In Somalia, climate-worsened droughts and poor infrastructure have devastated agricultural livelihoods and contributed to humanitarian crises.
• Water scarcity is a driver of mass migration, specifically in Central America’s Dry Corridor, where drier years between 2012 and 2018 were associated with a 70.7% increase in migration toward the United States.
• Water is increasingly used as a weapon of war by both state and non-state actors, exemplified by Russia destroying Ukrainian dams and similar tactics used by the Assad regime in Syria.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (2025). Preventing Water-Related Conflict to Promote US National Security and Build Global Stability. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/11/10/preventing-water-related-conflict-to-promote-us-national-security-and-build-global-stability/

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Preventing Water-Related Conflict to Promote US National Security and Build Global Stability. 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/11/10/preventing-water-related-conflict-to-promote-us-national-security-and-build-global-stability/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Preventing Water-Related Conflict to Promote US National Security and Build Global Stability |date=10 November 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/11/10/preventing-water-related-conflict-to-promote-us-national-security-and-build-global-stability/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisks2025preventing, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Preventing Water-Related Conflict to Promote US National Security and Build Global Stability}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/11/10/preventing-water-related-conflict-to-promote-us-national-security-and-build-global-stability/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }