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The briefing estimates that fossil fuels sold by Equinor in 2025 will cause between 34,000 and 58,000 additional deaths, while products sold since 2018 will result in 260,000 to 450,000 deaths. It contrasts these human costs with Norway's record fossil fuel export revenues, which reached 7,093,099 million NOK between January 2020 and July 2026. The document argues that the 'social cost of carbon' is significantly higher when including mortality, suggesting that Equinor's 2025 net operating income of $5 billion incurred a social cost of $66 billion.

The report argues that AI-enhanced ISR creates "precarious transparency," where sensing advances are unevenly distributed across different tasks and scenarios. While these tools improve the detection of static objects and peacetime verification, they remain fragile when applied to tracking mobile missiles or operating under wartime countermeasures. The authors conclude that these capabilities asymmetrically favor the United States, which may provoke China to expand its nuclear forces or employ counterspace capabilities more aggressively, thereby increasing the risk of instability.

The author analyzes the shift from a period of 'climate cultural hegemony' following the 2015 Paris Agreement to a current phase of 'ecological backlash' driven by fossil capital and reactionary politics. To counter this, the text proposes a strategic shift where the energy transition is viewed not only as an ethical necessity but as a matter of national and continental sovereignty. Key recommendations include accelerating large-scale renewable projects, relocalizing the extraction of critical raw materials within Europe to reduce dependence on third countries like China, and diversifying strategic alliances through multilateralism.

Global Witness warns that the global push for electrification, highlighted by priorities for COP31 and plans in the EU and China, faces a critical bottleneck due to copper shortages. The organization identifies declining copper grades, supply chain disruptions of sulphuric acid (essential for processing), and export bans on concentrates in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, and Tanzania as primary threats. To prevent high-income countries from monopolizing resources, Global Witness proposes a UN-led multi-decade plan to ensure equitable access to minerals and prioritize climate goals over military or data center applications.

The European Climate Neutrality Observatory (ECNO) reports that while the EU's transition to climate neutrality is accelerating overall, none of its 13 key building blocks are progressing at the required pace. Positive trends are noted in zero-emission vehicle registrations, heat pump sales, and poverty reduction in vulnerable regions. However, the report highlights critical failures in cleantech investment, financial flows, and nature-based carbon removal, while noting that some key policies, such as the 2035 zero emissions target for new cars and vans, have been weakened.

The 2026 Hormuz crisis, triggered by a US-Israel war with Iran, is projected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion by the end of 2026. This increase is driven by a 50% surge in Brent crude oil prices and a 45% rise in European gas prices. Türkiye's high import dependence—95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal—makes its economy structurally vulnerable to global price shocks. Road transport is the largest contributor to the energy bill, accounting for nearly one-third of the total in 2025. The report suggests that transitioning to electric vehicles and heat pumps could permanently lower import costs, noting that 1 million electric cars could save $900 million annually and a 10% transition to heat pumps in homes could save $1 billion annually.

Colombia is planning LNG import capacity that could exceed double its projected 2030 gas demand, potentially creating stranded assets and hindering its energy transition. While the country faces a domestic gas deficit and energy security risks from El Niño and geopolitical tensions, the report argues that current and planned projects—such as the SPEC LNG expansion and the Puerto Bahía or Coveñas terminals—could satisfy demand without the need for the full suite of nine planned initiatives. The document emphasizes that prioritizing flexible, temporary LNG capacity while shifting investment toward renewables and energy efficiency would align with Colombia's international climate leadership and its roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence by 90% by 2050.

Colombia is planning at least nine major LNG import terminal projects and expansions between 2026 and 2030, which would create a capacity of approximately 2,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). This figure is more than double the government's projected gas demand of 1,000 MMcf/d for 2030. The report warns that such an overbuild could lead to stranded assets, lock the country into long-term fossil fuel contracts, and divert resources from renewables and energy efficiency. While the country faces a domestic gas deficit and energy security challenges exacerbated by El Niño and geopolitical tensions, the document suggests that near-term needs could be met without overbuilding infrastructure, aligning instead with a roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence and emissions by 90% by 2050.

The report examines Europe's transition from fossil fuel dependency to clean technology, highlighting that domestic manufacturing can already meet the demand for wind turbines, electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps. It contrasts the volatility of fossil fuel imports with the stability of clean tech infrastructure, which provides long-term energy generation from a single import. While Europe remains reliant on certain raw materials and sub-components, the report suggests that electrification reduces overall trade disruption risks and offers significant job growth potential by 2030.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has triggered a global energy crisis, causing Brent crude to reach USD 138/barrel and spiking natural gas prices, particularly in Asia. This disruption has led to increased food and fertiliser prices, slowed global GDP growth, and strained national budgets through increased fossil fuel subsidies. In response, 26 countries and regions have implemented clean energy measures, with Asia leading in both vulnerability to supply shocks and the acceleration of clean technology investments and deployments.

The report finds that between 2019 and 2025, 240 global banks provided US$590.8 billion to the top fifteen petrochemical companies, with a high concentration of funding from US, Japanese, Chinese, German, and UK institutions. Institutional investors held US$146.6 billion in exposure to these companies as of September 2025, dominated by US-based asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock. The document argues that this financing persists despite structural risks such as overcapacity and collapsing profit margins, and often contradicts the public climate commitments of the financial institutions involved.

Nigeria's economy is heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for roughly 50% of the national budget and over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. This dependency has led to 'Dutch Disease', severe environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, and fiscal fragility due to oil price volatility. With global oil demand projected to peak by 2030, the report argues for an urgent transition. It recommends diversifying into solar and hydro power, agro-processing, green manufacturing, and the digital economy. Key policy proposals include establishing a National Economic Diversification Master Plan, redirecting fossil fuel subsidy savings toward green investment, and joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to secure transition finance and debt resolution.

The paper argues that the armed organization to which a person belongs is the most powerful predictor of whether they become a perpetrator of conflict-related sexual violence. Using datasets like SVAC and ACLED, it finds that while state forces have historically been more frequent perpetrators, there is a recent trend of increasing reports involving rebel groups. The author identifies key organizational risk factors, such as forced recruitment and child soldiering, which use sexual violence as a socialization tool for group cohesion. Conversely, restraint is linked to strong internal governance, such as electoral leader selection and ideological norms. The paper suggests that policy interventions should target organizational structures and use risk factors as early warning indicators rather than focusing solely on individual perpetrators.

The 17th edition of the Banking on Climate Chaos report finds that the world's largest banks committed $906 billion to fossil fuel companies in 2025, an 8% increase from 2024. Financing for fossil fuel expansion rose by over 27% to $508 billion. The report highlights a high concentration of finance, with a 'Dirty Dozen' of banks providing nearly 39% of global fossil deals. It also notes a trend of policy backsliding, where banks are weakening climate commitments and abandoning net-zero targets, particularly in the US. The report argues that this financing amplifies energy instability and inequality, especially during geopolitical crises like the 2026 US-Israel war on Iran.

The document examines how India is managing an energy price shock resulting from conflict in Iran. To control inflation, the Indian government has absorbed costs by cutting fuel excise duties and increasing fertilizer subsidies, costing an estimated 590 billion Indian rupees between March and May 2026. The brief warns that continued shock absorption may drain budgets for grid modernization and renewable energy, while passing costs to the public would disproportionately harm low-income households through indirect inflationary effects on food and transport.

The briefing warns that Pacific SIDS are facing a convergence of geopolitical and climatic crises. The war in Iran is driving up fuel and food prices due to shipping disruptions and import dependence, leading to states of emergency in Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands. This economic strain is expected to be compounded by a strong El Niño in the second half of 2026, which threatens tuna stocks, freshwater access, and agricultural productivity. The document recommends immediate anticipatory action, such as pre-positioning supplies and expanding early warning systems, alongside long-term investments in regenerative agriculture and regional fisheries management.

In 2025, global coal capacity additions reached 97.4 GW, the second-highest on record, primarily driven by China and India, even as global coal-fired electricity generation declined by 0.6%. The report highlights a decoupling where coal is increasingly used as system insurance rather than primary generation, as wind and solar displace coal. While China and India dominate new development, coal activity elsewhere is shrinking and becoming more isolated. However, net capacity outside China rose by 5 GW due to a slowdown in retirements and rebounds in India.

The Institute for Economic Justice criticizes the South African government for prioritizing fiscal restraint over human wellbeing, specifically citing the removal of 35,000 people from social grants to achieve savings. The statement calls for the transition of the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant into a permanent, non-means-tested universal basic income set at or above the food poverty line to protect vulnerable populations from rising food costs and economic instability.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fertiliser supply shock that threatens Nigerian food security by increasing agricultural production costs and food prices. Despite record domestic urea production in 2024, Nigeria remains vulnerable due to the export of most urea and a continued reliance on imported blending materials from Russia, Morocco, and China. These external shocks compound existing internal strains, including regional insecurity and infrastructure gaps, disproportionately affecting smallholder farmers who cannot absorb rising costs. The document argues for a pivot toward emergency procurement, improved trade finance, and expanded domestic blending capacity to build long-term resilience.

The document analyzes the geopolitical context of a 2026 summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, noting China's perceived advantage due to US unpredictability and legal rulings on tariffs. It highlights the tension surrounding nuclear weapons, following the expiration of New START and US allegations of Chinese nuclear testing, while suggesting that paths for meaningful engagement on strategic stability still exist.