A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security

This report by Ember argues that Europe can enhance its energy security and economic resilience by transitioning from a dependency on volatile fossil fuel imports to a system based on electrification and clean technology. It highlights that the EU already possesses a strong domestic manufacturing base for several key technologies and explains why dependencies on clean tech imports are fundamentally less risky than those for fossil fuels.

• Europe's current domestic manufacturing capacity for several key clean technologies exceeds its annual demand. The EU can produce 4.6 million electric vehicles (EVs) annually against a demand of 2.6 million, and 7.5 million heat pumps per year, which is nearly three times the 2025 installation rate of 2.6 million units. For wind turbines, the manufacturing potential is 30 GW annually, compared to 14 GW installed in 2025.
• The clean tech industry is a major employer in Europe, currently supporting approximately 1.8 million people. This includes 443,000 jobs in the wind industry, 433,000 in the heat pump industry, and 865,000 in the solar industry. With further investment, the battery industry's workforce could grow from 62,000 to 300,000 by 2030, potentially bringing total clean tech employment to over 2.3 million by 2030.
• Europe remains highly vulnerable to fossil fuel price volatility, with 85% of its supply imported from outside the bloc. This dependency had a significant financial impact during the US-Israel war with Iran, where fossil fuel price spikes cost Europe an additional €18.5 billion in the first 60 days of the conflict. In contrast, EVs helped lower oil import costs by €4.1 billion in 2025 by avoiding the consumption of 67 million barrels of oil.
• Clean tech import dependencies differ fundamentally from fossil fuel dependencies because they involve importing infrastructure stock rather than energy flows. Once imported, clean tech like solar panels provides energy for decades without further imports, whereas fossil fuels must be continuously imported and are lost upon use. This shift increases self-sufficiency over time and allows the energy system to continue functioning even if supply chains are disrupted.
• While Europe is strong in final assembly, it faces significant dependencies further up the clean tech value chain. Over 90% of permanent magnets used in the EU are imported due to a lack of rare earth element (REE) mining capacity. For battery cells, Europe is heavily reliant on imported electrodes, producing only 14% of cathode and 1% of anode demand. Solar panel manufacturing is also limited, with a significant shortfall between domestic capacity and the 65 GW of solar capacity added in 2025.
• The report recommends several policy actions to strengthen European resilience, including implementing local content criteria in public procurement, requiring 'Made in Europe' components for security-critical systems (like solar inverters), and increasing midstream industrial capabilities in lithium refining and semiconductors. It also suggests strategically stockpiling clean tech components and expanding domestic recycling to meet 30% of rare earth element demand by 2030.

APA

Harrison, T., & Rosslowe, D. C. (2026). A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Report-A-clean-break-leaving-fossil-volatility-for-clean-tech-security.pdf

Chicago

Harrison, Tom, and Dr Chris Rosslowe. A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Report-A-clean-break-leaving-fossil-volatility-for-clean-tech-security.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Harrison |first1=Tom |last2=Rosslowe |first2=Dr Chris |title=A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security |publisher=Ember |date=10 June 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Report-A-clean-break-leaving-fossil-volatility-for-clean-tech-security.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harrison2026clean, author = {Harrison, Tom and Rosslowe, Dr Chris}, title = {{A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Report-A-clean-break-leaving-fossil-volatility-for-clean-tech-security.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }