A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security

The report examines Europe's transition from fossil fuel dependency to clean technology, highlighting that domestic manufacturing can already meet the demand for wind turbines, electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps. It contrasts the volatility of fossil fuel imports with the stability of clean tech infrastructure, which provides long-term energy generation from a single import. While Europe remains reliant on certain raw materials and sub-components, the report suggests that electrification reduces overall trade disruption risks and offers significant job growth potential by 2030.

• European domestic manufacturing capacity for several key clean technologies currently exceeds annual demand: the EU can produce 4.6 million electric vehicles (against a demand of 2.5 million), 7.5 million heat pumps (against a demand of 2.6 million), and 30 GW of wind turbine capacity (against 14 GW installed in 2025).
• The clean tech industry is a major employer in Europe, supporting 443,000 jobs in wind, 433,000 in heat pumps, and 865,000 in solar; total employment in clean tech manufacturing could reach 2.3 million by 2030.
• Fossil fuel dependency creates high economic vulnerability; 85% of the EU's fossil fuel supply is imported, and price spikes during the first 60 days of the US-Israel war with Iran cost Europe an additional €18.5 billion.
• Clean tech imports differ fundamentally from fossil imports because they represent infrastructure stock rather than energy flows; once installed, technologies like solar panels generate power for decades without requiring continuous imports.
• Europe faces significant import dependencies further up the clean tech value chain, particularly for critical raw materials and specific components: over 90% of permanent magnets are imported, and the EU imports almost 80% of primary raw minerals and over 60% of processed materials for batteries.
• The EU has limited domestic manufacturing across the entire solar value chain, with a significant shortfall between its annual capacity (9 GWe for polysilicon, 12.2 GWe for modules) and its 2025 addition of approximately 65 GW of solar capacity.

APA

Harrison, T., & Rosslowe, D. C. (2026). A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Report-A-clean-break-leaving-fossil-volatility-for-clean-tech-security.pdf

Chicago

Harrison, Tom, and Dr Chris Rosslowe. A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Report-A-clean-break-leaving-fossil-volatility-for-clean-tech-security.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Harrison |first1=Tom |last2=Rosslowe |first2=Dr Chris |title=A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security |publisher=Ember |date=10 June 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Report-A-clean-break-leaving-fossil-volatility-for-clean-tech-security.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harrison2026clean, author = {Harrison, Tom and Rosslowe, Dr Chris}, title = {{A clean break: leaving fossil volatility for clean tech security}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/Report-A-clean-break-leaving-fossil-volatility-for-clean-tech-security.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }