The Pacific Under Pressure: War, El Niño, and Implications for Pacific Islands in the Coming Months

The briefing warns that Pacific SIDS are facing a convergence of geopolitical and climatic crises. The war in Iran is driving up fuel and food prices due to shipping disruptions and import dependence, leading to states of emergency in Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands. This economic strain is expected to be compounded by a strong El Niño in the second half of 2026, which threatens tuna stocks, freshwater access, and agricultural productivity. The document recommends immediate anticipatory action, such as pre-positioning supplies and expanding early warning systems, alongside long-term investments in regenerative agriculture and regional fisheries management.

• Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are highly vulnerable to the economic shocks of the war in Iran due to their narrow economies, high debt, and heavy reliance on food imports. Average food import dependence for Pacific SIDS rose from 40% in 1990 to 60% in 2011, with the Cook Islands reaching 92%. Cereal import dependency exceeds 95% in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu, and the Federated States of Micronesia.
• The economic pressure from rising fuel and transport costs has led to severe domestic responses: Tuvalu and the Republic of the Marshall Islands have declared states of emergency, and Fiji's ministers have taken 20% pay cuts. Additionally, the Pacific Islands Forum has activated its emergency response mechanism for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• A projected strong El Niño in the second half of 2026 is expected to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities by disrupting tuna stocks—which move eastward during these events—and causing temporary sea-level declines that lead to saltwater intrusion into drinking and irrigation water.
• To mitigate these risks, the document recommends that governments and agencies like the FAO pre-position emergency supplies and implement anticipatory action plans. Long-term strategies should focus on regenerative farming of traditional crops such as cassava, breadfruit, and taro, and strengthening marine protection through organizations like the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (2026). The Pacific Under Pressure: War, El Niño, and Implications for Pacific Islands in the Coming Months. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/05/29/the-pacific-under-pressure-war-el-nino-and-implications-for-pacific-islands-in-the-coming-months/

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. The Pacific Under Pressure: War, El Niño, and Implications for Pacific Islands in the Coming Months. 2026. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/05/29/the-pacific-under-pressure-war-el-nino-and-implications-for-pacific-islands-in-the-coming-months/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=The Pacific Under Pressure: War, El Niño, and Implications for Pacific Islands in the Coming Months |date=29 May 2026 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/05/29/the-pacific-under-pressure-war-el-nino-and-implications-for-pacific-islands-in-the-coming-months/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisks2026pacific, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{The Pacific Under Pressure: War, El Niño, and Implications for Pacific Islands in the Coming Months}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/05/29/the-pacific-under-pressure-war-el-nino-and-implications-for-pacific-islands-in-the-coming-months/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }