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State Level Climate Security: Ohio
Ohio is experiencing an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation, flooding, heat, and drought, with natural disaster costs reaching $2 to $5 billion in the first half of 2026. These hazards are compounded by aging infrastructure, including high-hazard dams and levees, and a legacy of industrial pollution from Superfund sites. The state's energy grid is under strain from extreme heat and surging demand from over 200 data centers, while state policy continues to favor fossil fuels and obstruct renewable energy development. Key military assets, such as Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, face significant flood and wildfire risks. While Ohio lacks a comprehensive statewide climate governance framework, some progress has been made through municipal adaptation plans and significant support from federal agencies like NOAA, FEMA, and the EPA.
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Document type: Report
A New Security Agenda
The report advocates for a 'New Security Agenda' that treats clean energy and ecosystem health as critical national security infrastructure. It argues that breaching planetary boundaries and relying on volatile fossil fuel markets create systemic risks to food security, public health, and economic stability. The authors call for binding legislative measures to phase out fossil fuels, the adoption of national restoration plans for biodiversity, and the alignment of public budgets to eliminate environmentally harmful subsidies.
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Document type: Report
Military Command Authority in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
The research paper examines how AI-enabled decision-support systems in military operations erode 'command authority'—the ability to bear consequences and exercise independent judgment—even when 'decision authority' (the formal act of authorization) remains with a human. The author contends that AI systems pre-structure the decision space, effectively predetermining outcomes while leaving junior officers to absorb the operational and career risks. This 'compliance trap' is reinforced by institutional incentives that make following machine advice the safest career choice. To counter this 'command drift,' the paper proposes requiring AI systems to declare embedded risk assumptions, providing formal protections for personnel who override machine recommendations, and expanding accountability reviews to audit the advisory layer's influence.
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Document type: Research paper
Copper shortage could be the undoing of COP31 electrification push
Global Witness warns that the global push for electrification, highlighted by priorities for COP31 and plans in the EU and China, faces a critical bottleneck due to copper shortages. The organization identifies declining copper grades, supply chain disruptions of sulphuric acid (essential for processing), and export bans on concentrates in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, and Tanzania as primary threats. To prevent high-income countries from monopolizing resources, Global Witness proposes a UN-led multi-decade plan to ensure equitable access to minerals and prioritize climate goals over military or data center applications.
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Document type: Statement
NOTE DE PLAIDOYER : POUR UNE ADAPTATION AUX CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES SENSIBLE AUX CONFLITS ET PROMOTRICE DE PAIX EN RÉPUBLIQUE CENTRAFRICAINE
The document examines the nexus between climate change and local conflict in the Central African Republic, highlighting how environmental stressors like drought and flooding exacerbate tensions over land and water. Based on consultations in Damara and Landja-Mboko, it argues that current adaptation plans lack systematic integration of the climate-conflict link. It provides detailed recommendations for government ministries, local authorities, and the private sector to promote peace-sensitive adaptation, including securing transhumance corridors, improving land tenure, and diversifying livelihoods for vulnerable groups.
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Document type: Policy brief
Carta de posicionamento frente ao Super El Niño e seus impactos no Brasil
A coalition of 70 organizations warns that a 'Super El Niño'—a phenomenon not seen since 1870—will cause extreme rainfall, floods, and droughts in Brazil. The letter criticizes the government's history of reacting only after disasters and its tendency to prioritize economically valued central urban areas over peripheries inhabited by Black, quilombola, and traditional populations. The authors demand transformational climate adaptation that prioritizes racial and gender equity, secure housing over forced removals, and the integration of community-led risk management into federal policy. Specific requests for information and meetings are directed to the Casa Civil, the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, and the Ministry of Cities.
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Document type: Statement
Expert opinion on the 2022-2023 Brisbane and Kimberley flood events and their relationship to anthropogenic climate change
The document argues that the 2022 Brisbane and 2022/23 Kimberley floods were made more likely and impactful by human-caused climate change, specifically through increased ocean temperatures, more frequent multi-year La Niña events, and higher atmospheric moisture. It concludes that while the frequency of some weather systems may decrease, the intensity of rainfall and flooding is expected to increase, potentially leading to prohibitive costs for protection and insurance in flood-prone zones.
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Document type: Report
Global Breadbaskets
The report warns that climate change is increasing the probability of simultaneous crop failures in major global breadbaskets, which could trigger food price spikes, social unrest, and geopolitical instability. Using France, Germany, and India as examples, it projects significant increases in crop failure risks by 2040 and highlights how extreme heat undermines both agricultural yields and the labor and infrastructure necessary for food security. For Europe, these failures could be exploited by Russia through hybrid warfare and disinformation, while destabilizing import-dependent NATO and EU partners. The authors recommend that NATO and the EU integrate food security into resilience frameworks, protect agricultural aid, coordinate trade responses to avoid export bans, and increase investment in climate-smart agricultural R&D.
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Document type: Report
Priority Actions for the Private Sector: Mining & Mineral Supply Chains
The report outlines a framework for the mining sector to mitigate its impact on forests, emphasizing a 'nature-positive' approach. It details cross-cutting principles for all companies and specific mandates for upstream operators (e.g., protecting restricted areas and ensuring FPIC), midstream processors (e.g., implementing traceability), and downstream manufacturers (e.g., mandating mine-of-origin disclosure and designing for circularity). The goal is to align the mineral value chain with the 2030 Global Forest Vision to protect high-integrity ecosystems and Indigenous rights.
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Document type: Report
The Pacific Under Pressure: War, El Niño, and Implications for Pacific Islands in the Coming Months
The briefing warns that Pacific SIDS are facing a convergence of geopolitical and climatic crises. The war in Iran is driving up fuel and food prices due to shipping disruptions and import dependence, leading to states of emergency in Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands. This economic strain is expected to be compounded by a strong El Niño in the second half of 2026, which threatens tuna stocks, freshwater access, and agricultural productivity. The document recommends immediate anticipatory action, such as pre-positioning supplies and expanding early warning systems, alongside long-term investments in regenerative agriculture and regional fisheries management.
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Document type: Briefing
2026 World Cup Stadiums: Extreme Heat Rising
Climate Central analysis shows that 14 of the 16 host stadiums for the 2026 World Cup are experiencing more extremely hot days during the June-July tournament period than in 1970. Human-caused climate change is responsible for an average of 49% of these extreme heat days across all stadiums, with the highest impact seen in Miami and Mexico City. In 10 repeat host cities, the frequency of extremely hot days has tripled on average since they last hosted the tournament.
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Document type: Briefing
The Criticality of Gender Equality in the Race for Critical Minerals
The report analyzes the risks that critical mineral extraction poses to women, particularly Indigenous and rural women, and provides policy recommendations for governments and companies to ensure gender-equitable benefit-sharing and inclusive consultation.
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Document type: Report
Responsible Mining for the Energy Transition: Managing Risk, Delivering Shared Value
The document argues that implementing rigorous voluntary mining standards, specifically the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA) standards, is economically rational and strategically important for the energy transition. While adoption is often hindered by a lack of clarity regarding costs and return on investment, the analysis suggests that these practices protect asset value, reduce operational risk, and improve access to markets and capital.
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Document type: Executive summary
Assessing Climate Risks to India’s Power Sector: A District-Level and Asset-Level Methodology for Climate-Resilient Power Systems
The paper introduces the Climate Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF), a structured approach to quantify physical climate risks for India's power infrastructure. It addresses gaps in existing literature by moving from qualitative risk ratings to energy-denominated impact estimates, specifically Expected Annual Loss (EAL) and Energy Not Served (ENS). The methodology distinguishes between chronic stressors (causing performance derating) and acute events (causing sudden failure), providing a pathway for cost-benefit analysis of resilience investments to avoid stranded assets and unplanned retrofitting costs.
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Document type: Research paper
The Criticality of Gender Equality in the Race for Critical Minerals
The report warns that the surge in demand for critical minerals—such as lithium, cobalt, and copper—to support the energy transition and digital economy may exacerbate gender inequalities and human rights challenges. It identifies three key risk drivers: specific environmental impacts of critical mineral processing, the location of projects on Indigenous or agricultural lands, and the use of accelerated permitting. To mitigate these, the report recommends implementing intersectional gender analyses, ensuring inclusive consultation and consent, and establishing gender-responsive benefit-sharing mechanisms.
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Document type: Executive summary
Risky_Venture_Report_BFF
The report argues that the TotalEnergies-EPH joint venture (TTEP) locks Europe into fossil gas dependency, increases energy bill volatility through LNG imports, and relies on public subsidies that should be redirected toward clean energy. It highlights that the venture's 12.5 GW gas capacity will produce emissions comparable to entire countries like Ireland or Denmark over five years, while challenging the companies' claims that such assets are necessary for grid flexibility.
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Document type: Report
Nature-based infrastructure’s role in mining closure plans
The report evaluates three closure pathways for artisanal gold mines in Marmato, Colombia, finding that progressive closure using nature-based infrastructure (NBI) provides a return of USD 1.44 for every USD 1 invested. The primary economic driver is the reduction of mortality risks from landslides, rockfalls, and tunnel collapses. NBI interventions, including reforestation and hydrological restoration, are shown to be more cost-effective when implemented during operations rather than at the end of mine life.
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Document type: Report
Establishing Climate Resilient, Regenerative Agricultural (CRRA) systems in Tonga, Vanuatu and Samoa
The programme aims to transition smallholder farmers in Tonga, Vanuatu, and Samoa to Climate Resilient and Regenerative Agriculture (CRRA) to combat food insecurity caused by erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and intense cyclones. With a total budget of 43,690,709 USD, the initiative focuses on three priority systems: mixed horticulture in Tonga, kava intercropping in Vanuatu, and taro intercropping in Samoa. The strategy employs a 'learning by doing' approach using 90 'Learning Farms' to provide evidence of financial viability, which will then be scaled to 12,510 farmers. Key components include a Farmer Support Programme (FSP) to cover upfront costs, the creation of national CRRA Working Groups for policy reform, and the development of digital agricultural apps and monitoring systems to track soil health and productivity. The project expects to restore 20,730 hectares of land and provide direct adaptation benefits to 50,654 individuals by 2031.
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Document type: Report
Catalyzing a Climate Risk Protection Shield for Zambian Smallholder Farmers
The project aims to build a 'climate risk protection shield' for 840,000 individuals in Zambian smallholder households by transitioning from aid-dependent interventions to self-sustaining markets. It consists of three components: restructuring the insurance sector through a not-for-profit reinsurance cell, strengthening the indigenous tree seedling supply chain via a national certification system and 1,000 nurseries, and utilizing the One Acre Fund platform to provide climate-resilient inputs and training to 65,000 households. The total investment is USD 30,261,554, including USD 5,261,554 in co-financing from One Acre Fund.
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Document type: Report
Fallstudie av LKAB:s ansökta Per Geijer-projekt och risker för Gabna sameby
This case study by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the risks posed by LKAB's proposed Per Geijer mining project to the Gabna sameby. The study introduces a new human rights impact assessment (HRIA) methodology specifically adapted for Sami reindeer husbandry to evaluate how industrial projects affect indigenous rights to land and culture.
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Document type: Case study