Global Breadbaskets

The report warns that climate change is increasing the probability of simultaneous crop failures in major global breadbaskets, which could trigger food price spikes, social unrest, and geopolitical instability. Using France, Germany, and India as examples, it projects significant increases in crop failure risks by 2040 and highlights how extreme heat undermines both agricultural yields and the labor and infrastructure necessary for food security. For Europe, these failures could be exploited by Russia through hybrid warfare and disinformation, while destabilizing import-dependent NATO and EU partners. The authors recommend that NATO and the EU integrate food security into resilience frameworks, protect agricultural aid, coordinate trade responses to avoid export bans, and increase investment in climate-smart agricultural R&D.

• Climate change is increasing the risk of simultaneous crop failures in major breadbaskets producing staple crops. By 2040, the probability of wheat crops failing simultaneously in India, France, and Germany is projected to more than triple from 0.02% to 0.07%.
• Specific crop failure risks are projected to rise significantly by 2040 relative to 2010: Indian rice failure risk is projected to grow roughly sixfold, French maize roughly fourfold, French wheat roughly threefold, and Indian wheat and German maize roughly twofold.
• Extreme heat threatens agricultural productivity and human labor. In India, 15-40% of rainfed rice-growing regions may see reduced suitability by 2050, and physical work capacity during the growing season could drop to 40% of 2000-era levels by 2100. In southwestern France, an average of 16 additional days per year above 35°C are projected by 2040.
• Breadbasket failures in the Global North could cause food price spikes exceeding 15% in Europe, mirroring the 2022-2023 crisis. This instability could be exploited by Russia through information manipulation and hybrid warfare to undermine NATO and EU cohesion.
• Global food shocks shift geopolitical leverage toward major exporters such as the US, Russia, Brazil, and India. Russia has previously used its grain exports for geopolitical gain, and India's potential for export bans during domestic shocks could exacerbate global insecurity.
• European investment in agricultural R&D is declining while China increases its spending to lead in food technology. European government funding for CGIAR decreased by nearly 40% since 2019 to $79 million as of 2024.

APA

Ellison, T., Fritzhand, N., Naegele, D. A., & Caparas, M. (2026). Global Breadbaskets. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/FR-Global-Breadbaskets.pdf

Chicago

Ellison, Tom, Noah Fritzhand, Dr. Alexandra Naegele, and Monica Caparas. Global Breadbaskets. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2026. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/FR-Global-Breadbaskets.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ellison |first1=Tom |last2=Fritzhand |first2=Noah |last3=Naegele |first3=Dr. Alexandra |last4=Caparas |first4=Monica |title=Global Breadbaskets |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=June 2026 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/FR-Global-Breadbaskets.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ellison2026global, author = {Ellison, Tom and Fritzhand, Noah and Naegele, Dr. Alexandra and Caparas, Monica}, title = {{Global Breadbaskets}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/FR-Global-Breadbaskets.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }