Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper examines the complex relationship between democracy and economic growth, specifically focusing on the African context. It distinguishes between 'substantive' (liberal, constitutional) democracy and 'procedural' democracy, arguing that while the former correlates with long-term growth and stability, the latter often fails to improve governance or development in low-income countries.

This research paper provides an introductory overview of Sudan's development potential and the systemic barriers that have hindered its progress. It details the country's geographical advantages, natural resource endowments, and a history of political instability and conflict, culminating in the current civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces.

This research paper outlines a 'Governance scenario' for Africa, modeling the potential socio-economic impacts of improvements in stability, government capacity, and inclusion by 2043. It specifically examines how digital technology can enable direct cash transfer programs to replace inefficient subsidies and forecasts significant gains in GDP and poverty reduction across the continent.

This introductory report provides an overview of the Republic of Chad, detailing its geography, political history from independence in 1960 to the 2024 presidency of Mahamat Idriss Déby, and its socioeconomic challenges despite possessing gold, uranium, and oil resources.

The Demographics and Health Scenario is a research paper that models the potential impact of accelerated fertility decline and health infrastructure improvements across Africa. It outlines a series of ambitious but empirically grounded interventions starting in 2027 to enhance human development and economic growth relative to a 'Current Path' forecast.

The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), established in 1983 and revised in 2019, comprises 11 member states in Central Africa. While its mandate expanded in 1998 to include peace and security alongside economic cooperation, the region continues to face challenges including low regional integration, currency diversity, and significant economic disparities, with member states ranging from low-income to nominally upper-middle-income.

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for the Central African Republic, comparing it to a 'Current Path' forecast. The scenario integrates 11 sectoral interventions to project improvements in GDP per capita, poverty reduction, and sectoral economic contributions by 2043, while noting an increase in carbon emissions as a result of higher economic growth.

The report explores how Africa can 'leapfrog' traditional development stages by adopting decentralised renewable energy, mobile-first digital infrastructure, and AI. It highlights the success of mobile money (e.g., M-Pesa) and the potential for solar mini-grids to close the energy gap. A projected 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario suggests that by 2050, such strategic investments could increase GDP per capita by US$510, reduce extreme poverty by 63 million people, and expand the overall economy by nearly US$1 trillion compared to current trends.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the role of mobile technology and broadband in Africa's technological leapfrogging. It details the shift from fixed-line to mobile networks, the impact of mobile broadband on poverty reduction, and the emergence of satellite internet solutions to bridge connectivity gaps in remote areas.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines gender discrimination within the family sphere in Africa, focusing on child marriage, the unequal distribution of unpaid care and domestic work, and disparities in divorce and inheritance rights.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of an 'Education scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it to a 'Current Path' forecast. The document argues that increased investment in education acts as a multiplier for economic growth, reducing extreme poverty and improving health outcomes across the continent.

This report analyzes the projected impacts of a specific 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it against a 'Current Path' forecast. The scenario envisions a significant increase in agricultural production, reduced food import dependence, and substantial poverty reduction, though it notes that these gains depend on technological adoption and climate factors.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic impact of achieving full gender parity in Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender Equality scenario' against a 'Current Path' and a 'Gender scenario', focusing on GDP growth, per capita income, and poverty reduction across different African regions and income levels.

This research paper presents an 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa, modeling the potential impact of an agricultural revolution through eight specific interventions using the IFs forecasting platform. The scenario aims to address low productivity, climate vulnerability, and food insecurity to stimulate rural economic transformation and diversification.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies outlines a proposed 'Energy Policy scenario' for Africa to transition toward a low-emissions energy future. It analyzes the gap between current fossil fuel production and climate targets, the potential for scaling renewables and nuclear energy, and the role of energy efficiency in reducing total demand.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of various global carbon tax scenarios on Africa's energy transition and economic future, specifically highlighting the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario.

The April 2026 Peace & Security Council Report examines key African Union (AU) initiatives, including a UN resolution on slavery reparations, the integration of governance intelligence into security actions via the APRM-PSC interface, the precarious stability of South Sudan ahead of 2026 elections, and a review of Angola's tenure as AU chair.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected impacts of a 'Demographics and Health scenario' on Africa by 2043. It compares this scenario against a 'Current Path' baseline, forecasting improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH), disease burden, infant mortality, life expectancy, and overall economic prosperity.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.

This research paper outlines the 'Demographics and Health Scenario' for Africa, a model designed to accelerate the continent's demographic transition and enhance its demographic dividend through targeted interventions in fertility, mortality, and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure.