Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario

The document analyzes the potential for the Central African Republic to significantly increase its GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty through an intersectoral policy push under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. While the scenario predicts substantial economic growth, particularly driven by agriculture and the service sector, it also forecasts a significant increase in carbon emissions due to the carbon-intensive nature of this growth.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a synergistic effect, is projected to increase the Central African Republic's GDP per capita to US$2,702 by 2043, which is approximately 78% higher than the Current Path forecast of US$1,516.
• Among sectoral interventions, agriculture is expected to have the most significant impact on GDP per capita, adding US$211.5 by 2043. Other major contributors include Financial Flows (US$159.1) and Leapfrogging (US$145), while the synergistic effect of combined scenarios adds another US$204.9.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could significantly reduce extreme poverty by 2043, with 43.2% of the population (3.44 million people) living below the poverty line, compared to 68.3% (5.76 million people) in the Current Path forecast, effectively moving 2.32 million people out of poverty.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to be carbon intensive. Carbon emissions are expected to reach 1.2 million tons by 2043, which is 12 times the 2019 level of 100,000 tons and 300,000 tons higher than the Current Path forecast of 0.9 million tons.
• The service sector is projected to see the largest relative increase in GDP contribution under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, adding 3.4 percentage points by 2043 (US$3.9 billion). The manufacturing sector is expected to add US$1.8 billion, and agriculture is projected to contribute US$700 million more than the Current Path forecast.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026central, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }