Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for the Central African Republic, comparing it to a 'Current Path' forecast. The scenario integrates 11 sectoral interventions to project improvements in GDP per capita, poverty reduction, and sectoral economic contributions by 2043, while noting an increase in carbon emissions as a result of higher economic growth.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase the Central African Republic's GDP per capita to US$2,702 by 2043, which is approximately 78% higher than the Current Path forecast of US$1,516.
• Among the 11 sectoral interventions, the Agriculture scenario is expected to have the most significant impact on GDP per capita, adding US$211.5 by 2043. Other major contributors include Financial Flows (US$159.1) and Leapfrogging (US$145), alongside a 'synergistic effect' that could add another US$204.9.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could significantly reduce extreme poverty by 2043, with 43.2% of the population (3.44 million people) living below the poverty line, compared to 68.3% (5.76 million people) in the Current Path forecast. This represents a reduction of 2.32 million people in poverty.
• The scenario projects a shift in sectoral contributions to GDP by 2043. The service sector is expected to see the largest relative increase, adding 3.4 percentage points (US$3.9 billion) over the Current Path. Manufacturing is projected to add US$1.8 billion, and agriculture is expected to contribute US$700 million more than the Current Path, despite its relative percentage contribution being 2.9 percentage points lower than the Current Path by 2043.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is expected to be carbon intensive. By 2043, carbon emissions are projected to reach 1.2 million tons, which is 12 times the 2019 level of 100,000 tons and 300,000 tons higher than the Current Path forecast of 0.9 million tons.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026central, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }