Assessing Climate Risks to India’s Power Sector: A District-Level and Asset-Level Methodology for Climate-Resilient Power Systems

The paper introduces the Climate Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF), a structured approach to quantify physical climate risks for India's power infrastructure. It addresses gaps in existing literature by moving from qualitative risk ratings to energy-denominated impact estimates, specifically Expected Annual Loss (EAL) and Energy Not Served (ENS). The methodology distinguishes between chronic stressors (causing performance derating) and acute events (causing sudden failure), providing a pathway for cost-benefit analysis of resilience investments to avoid stranded assets and unplanned retrofitting costs.

• India's climate profile is shifting toward non-linear increases in temperature and precipitation extremes, with mean surface temperature rising approximately 0.9°C between 1901 and 2024.
• Climate-induced extreme weather events have caused significant financial losses for Asian power utilities, totaling USD 6.3 billion (INR 59,850 crore) annually.
• The proposed Climate Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) uses a hazard–exposure–vulnerability (H×E×V) construct to quantify risk across seven analytical stages, moving from district-level hazard indices to financial impact estimates.
• The framework identifies two distinct impact pathways: chronic stress, which leads to performance derating (e.g., efficiency loss in solar PV modules), and acute stress, which causes sudden failure and outages (e.g., transmission tower collapse during cyclones).
• The methodology generates an Asset-Specific Climate Risk Factor (ACRF), a dimensionless comparative index used for spatial risk mapping and identifying hotspots across India's districts.
• Operational impacts are quantified as Expected Annual Loss (EAL) for generation assets and Energy Not Served (ENS) for transmission and distribution assets, both expressed in MWh per year.
• The framework includes a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) module to evaluate resilience measures by comparing the Present Value of Benefits (avoided energy losses and repair costs) against the Present Value of Costs.
• As of 2026, India's total installed power capacity is approximately 520 GW, with a target for 60% of cumulative installed capacity to come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2035.

APA

Sarkar, A., Kumar, K., Thampi, M., & Farhan, Z. (2026). Assessing Climate Risks to India’s Power Sector: A District-Level and Asset-Level Methodology for Climate-Resilient Power Systems. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Discussion-paper-Assessing-Climate-Risks-to-Indias-Power-Sector.pdf

Chicago

Sarkar, Arnab, Krishna Kumar, Malavika Thampi, and Zeya Farhan. Assessing Climate Risks to India’s Power Sector: A District-Level and Asset-Level Methodology for Climate-Resilient Power Systems. Climate Policy Initiative, 2026. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Discussion-paper-Assessing-Climate-Risks-to-Indias-Power-Sector.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sarkar |first1=Arnab |last2=Kumar |first2=Krishna |last3=Thampi |first3=Malavika |last4=Farhan |first4=Zeya |title=Assessing Climate Risks to India’s Power Sector: A District-Level and Asset-Level Methodology for Climate-Resilient Power Systems |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=May 2026 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Discussion-paper-Assessing-Climate-Risks-to-Indias-Power-Sector.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sarkar2026assessing, author = {Sarkar, Arnab and Kumar, Krishna and Thampi, Malavika and Farhan, Zeya}, title = {{Assessing Climate Risks to India’s Power Sector: A District-Level and Asset-Level Methodology for Climate-Resilient Power Systems}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Discussion-paper-Assessing-Climate-Risks-to-Indias-Power-Sector.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }