The Middle East Paradoxon: Can a New Regional Order Emerge After Disruption?

The briefing examines the 'Middle East Paradoxon,' where Israel faces increased internal instability and lost soft power despite a lack of immediate military threats from its Arab neighbors. It analyzes the fallout from a September 9, 2025, Israeli strike in Doha, which triggered rare Arab unity and accelerated a strategic realignment away from the United States. The author discusses the 'Trump Peace Plan' for Gaza as a rupture that may bring hostages home but faces significant risks of derailment due to its vague nature and opposition from Israeli ultranationalists. Additionally, the text highlights a new nuclear shield agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and the potential for Syria to become a site of power struggle between Turkey and Israel following the toppling of Bashar al-Asad.

• An Israeli military strike on the Leqtaifiya district in Doha on September 9, 2025, which failed to kill top Hamas leadership, acted as a major regional game changer by provoking a rare display of unity among Arab and Muslim states.
• The attack on Qatar accelerated a gradual realignment of Arab Gulf states away from the United States due to growing skepticism regarding US security guarantees, a trend previously signaled by the UAE's reaction to Houthi attacks in January 2022.
• Saudi Arabia has signed a new strategic military agreement with Pakistan to obtain a nuclear shield, effectively ending the possibility of a triangular nuclear technology deal involving Israel and the US.
• The 'Trump Peace Plan' for Gaza, while facilitating the return of living Israeli hostages, is characterized by a lack of concrete sequencing and guarantees, and is viewed as a setback for ultranationalists in Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet.
• Israel is experiencing a paradox where it is militarily safer from its immediate Arab neighbors than in previous decades, yet it has lost significant global soft power and moral high ground due to its warfare in Gaza.
• The toppling of Bashar al-Asad by Islamist forces has created a window of opportunity for Turkey and may lead to a regional power struggle in Syria between Turkey and Israel.

APA

Wieland, C. (2025). The Middle East Paradoxon: Can a New Regional Order Emerge After Disruption? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/03e72ad5-7276-463b-a587-58509e2dfceb/FES PCC CWieland The Middle East Paradoxon 2025.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Wieland, Carsten. The Middle East Paradoxon: Can a New Regional Order Emerge After Disruption? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2025. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/03e72ad5-7276-463b-a587-58509e2dfceb/FES PCC CWieland The Middle East Paradoxon 2025.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wieland |first1=Carsten |title=The Middle East Paradoxon: Can a New Regional Order Emerge After Disruption? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=November 2025 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/03e72ad5-7276-463b-a587-58509e2dfceb/FES PCC CWieland The Middle East Paradoxon 2025.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wieland2025middle, author = {Wieland, Carsten}, title = {{The Middle East Paradoxon: Can a New Regional Order Emerge After Disruption?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/03e72ad5-7276-463b-a587-58509e2dfceb/FES PCC CWieland The Middle East Paradoxon 2025.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }