The Bottom Line

The document analyzes global oil demand scenarios from the IEA and CER, concluding that structural shifts in road transport and increasing climate policies will lead to a permanent decline in oil demand starting before 2030. It highlights that while road transport is the primary driver, other sectors like plastics, aviation, and shipping will also contribute to demand destruction in the medium term, creating a shrinking market for Canadian oil producers.

• Global oil demand is projected to peak by 2030 or earlier across multiple credible analyses, including those from the IEA, BP, DNV, McKinsey, and Rystad Energy.
• Road transport is the most significant driver of oil demand destruction, accounting for 44% of crude oil demand. The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating due to government mandates, subsidies, and an 'S-curve' of organic consumer adoption.
• Under the IEA's Net-Zero scenario, oil demand for road transport would drop by 18.8 mbpd by 2030 and 49.9 mbpd by 2050 compared to the Stated Policies scenario.
• Even under the Canada Energy Regulator's (CER) relatively unambitious 'Evolving Policies Scenario', Canadian crude oil production is projected to peak in 2032 and then decline at an average annual rate of 1.1% to reach 2018 levels by 2050.
• Other sectors will contribute to oil demand decline post-2030: plastics (19% of demand) through pollution regulations and recycling; aviation and shipping (12% of demand) through net-zero pledges and carbon intensity targets; and buildings and power (13% of demand) through cheaper alternatives.
• Combining the IEA's Net-Zero trajectory for road transport with the more conservative Announced Policies scenario for other sectors would result in a 22% drop in oil demand from 2019 levels by 2030, and a 58% reduction by 2050.

APA

Cosbey, A. (2022). The Bottom Line. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/bottom-line-canada-global-oil-demand.pdf

Chicago

Cosbey, Aaron. The Bottom Line. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2022. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/bottom-line-canada-global-oil-demand.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cosbey |first1=Aaron |title=The Bottom Line |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2022 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/bottom-line-canada-global-oil-demand.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cosbey2022bottom, author = {Cosbey, Aaron}, title = {{The Bottom Line}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/bottom-line-canada-global-oil-demand.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }