The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The report outlines three potential development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040: 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'. Each scenario evaluates different policy priorities—ranging from industrial growth and technological innovation to environmental stability—and their projected impacts on GDP and per capita income relative to a 'Current Path' forecast.

• The 'Going for Growth' scenario prioritizes economic expansion through increased foreign direct investment (FDI), infrastructure improvements, and a more effective government. This pathway involves redefining the state's role to encourage private sector competition in finance, health, education, and manufacturing, while identifying protected assets like water and energy supply. By 2040, governance interventions alone would increase the economy's size by nearly 67% (€18 billion) compared to the Current Path, with the total scenario increasing GDP by €27 billion in 2040 and adding roughly €2 630 to per capita income.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario focuses on leveraging human capital and ICT potential to adopt modern systems in telecommunications, health, education, and finance. It requires significant investment in R&D, science, technology, and physical infrastructure to move beyond basic internet use toward integrating technology into government and business operations. This private-sector driven approach, including the use of renewables to bypass traditional energy infrastructure, would result in a cumulative GDP increase of about €79 billion by 2040 and an increase in per capita income of roughly US$1 000 over the next 20 years relative to the Current Path.
• The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario emphasizes long-term human and economic development without compromising future generations. Key strategies include increasing irrigated land area, treating wastewater to combat projected water crises, and adopting renewables by reducing energy subsidies for middle- and upper-class citizens while increasing social protection for the vulnerable. This scenario would reduce agricultural import dependence from approximately 22% of net demand to roughly 3% by 2040. By 2040, the economy would be roughly €13 billion larger than the Current Path, with a cumulative increase of €23 billion from 2020 to 2040 and a per capita GDP improvement of €233.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=12-scenario-analysis

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=12-scenario-analysis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=12-scenario-analysis |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=12-scenario-analysis}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }