The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The report outlines three scenarios for Tunisia's development to 2040: 'Going for Growth', which prioritises industrial production and FDI; 'Leapfrogging', which focuses on ICT and digital innovation; and 'Sustainability & Equality', which emphasises environmental stability and social protection. Across all scenarios, governance interventions are identified as the primary driver of GDP growth relative to the current path.

• The 'Going for Growth' scenario prioritises economic expansion through foreign direct investment (FDI), infrastructure improvements, and a shift away from state-owned monopolies in manufacturing, health, education, and finance. By 2040, governance interventions alone would increase the economy's size by nearly 67% (€18 billion) compared to the current path, while the total scenario impact would increase GDP by €27 billion in 2040 and cumulatively by roughly €201 billion.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario focuses on leveraging human capital and ICT to bypass traditional development stages, requiring investments in R&D, vocational training, and digital infrastructure. This scenario would result in a cumulative GDP increase of approximately €79 billion by 2040 and over €259 billion by mid-century, with governance interventions accounting for over 98% of the GDP boost.
• The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario emphasizes long-term environmental stability and social equity, specifically by increasing irrigated land, treating wastewater, and reducing energy subsidies for the middle and upper classes to fund social protection for the vulnerable. This pathway would reduce agricultural import dependence from approximately 22% of net demand to roughly 3% by 2040 and increase the economy's size by roughly €13 billion in 2040 relative to the current path.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=12-scenario-analysis

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=12-scenario-analysis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=12-scenario-analysis |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=12-scenario-analysis}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }