California Energy Policy Simulator 3.3.1 Update

The California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) 3.3.1 update finds that current policy commitments will leave California's 2030 emissions nearly 20% above the SB 32 target. To address this, Energy Innovation proposes a 'Deeper Decarbonization Scenario' focusing on rapid electrification of vehicles, appliances, and industry, alongside a strengthened clean energy standard. This approach is projected to lower 2030 emissions to 230 MMT of CO2e and generate significant economic and public health benefits, including $60 billion in monetized social benefits by 2050, while reducing reliance on unproven carbon dioxide removal technologies.

• Current policy commitments are insufficient to meet California's 2030 climate target, with projected emissions of 307 MMT of CO2e, which is nearly 50 MMT or 20 percent above the SB 32 target.
• The proposed Deeper Decarbonization Scenario would reduce 2030 emissions to 230 MMT of CO2e, which is 47 percent below 1990 levels, and further reduce them to 56 MMT of CO2e by 2045.
• The Deeper Decarbonization Scenario is projected to deliver $60 billion in monetized climate and health benefits by 2050, with GDP gains peaking near $29 billion in 2031.
• Accelerated decarbonization is estimated to create 170,000 jobs by 2030, peaking at 196,000 jobs in 2036.
• The report recommends five near-term priorities: 100% ZEV sales for new cars/light trucks by 2030 and heavy-duty trucks by 2035; 100% electrification of new appliances by 2030; a clean energy standard of 76% renewables and 92% zero emissions by 2030; industrial fuel switching to electricity and hydrogen; and insulating electricity rates from $38.9 billion in wildfire costs.
• The Deeper Decarbonization Scenario reduces reliance on unproven carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies compared to the Draft 2022 Scoping Plan, which relies heavily on direct air capture to achieve 2045 goals.
• Electric vehicle (EV) sales standards are identified as the most cost-effective policy, with a net present value of -$527 per tonne in the 2050 abatement cost curve.
• Food and beverage processing is highlighted as a prime candidate for industrial electrification due to its low-temperature heat requirements and status as the third-largest industrial user of natural gas in California.
• The state's cap-and-trade program effectiveness is challenged by an oversupply of tradable permits, with the private bank of allowances exceeding 300 million tonnes.

APA

BUSCH, C., ASHMOORE, O., ORVIS, R., & WENZEL, S. (2022). California Energy Policy Simulator 3.3.1 Update. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Insights-1.pdf

Chicago

BUSCH, CHRIS, OLIVIA ASHMOORE, ROBBIE ORVIS, and SHELLEY WENZEL. California Energy Policy Simulator 3.3.1 Update. Energy Innovation, 2022. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Insights-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BUSCH |first1=CHRIS |last2=ASHMOORE |first2=OLIVIA |last3=ORVIS |first3=ROBBIE |last4=WENZEL |first4=SHELLEY |title=California Energy Policy Simulator 3.3.1 Update |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=16 June 2022 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Insights-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{busch2022california, author = {BUSCH, CHRIS and ASHMOORE, OLIVIA and ORVIS, ROBBIE and WENZEL, SHELLEY}, title = {{California Energy Policy Simulator 3.3.1 Update}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Insights-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }