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The U.S. Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) version 4.0 incorporates the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), projecting that the U.S. is on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This trajectory is primarily driven by the electricity sector, where the clean electricity share is expected to rise to 70 percent by 2030, and the transportation sector through increased zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption. The updated model features a redesigned electricity module with hourly dispatch, new power plant types including carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and hydrogen plants, and improved tracking of ZEV and industrial costs.

The report models an 'Added Policy' (AP) scenario where China reaches 100% NEV sales for passenger cars, SUVs, and buses by 2035, and for freight trucks by 2040. This transition is projected to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, prevent tens of thousands of premature deaths—primarily through the electrification of trucks—and create millions of jobs. The analysis also highlights a substantial reduction in China's dependence on imported petroleum, with fuel demand for the modeled vehicle categories falling by 97% by 2060 compared to business-as-usual. The authors recommend that China establish ambitious long-term NEV sales targets for freight trucks and implement a 'Dual Credit'-type policy for commercial vehicles.

Energy Innovation's modeling indicates that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 37-41% below 2005 levels by 2030, closing 50-66% of the gap between business-as-usual projections and the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Despite an estimated increase of up to 50 million metric tons (MMT) in emissions from required oil and gas leasing, the net effect is overwhelmingly positive, with at least 24 tons of emissions avoided for every ton generated by leasing provisions. The IRA is projected to create 1.4 to 1.5 million jobs and prevent 3,700 to 3,900 premature deaths by 2030, with health benefits disproportionately benefiting communities of color.

The California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) 3.3.1 update finds that current policy commitments will leave California's 2030 emissions nearly 20% above the SB 32 target. To address this, Energy Innovation proposes a 'Deeper Decarbonization Scenario' focusing on rapid electrification of vehicles, appliances, and industry, alongside a strengthened clean energy standard. This approach is projected to lower 2030 emissions to 230 MMT of CO2e and generate significant economic and public health benefits, including $60 billion in monetized social benefits by 2050, while reducing reliance on unproven carbon dioxide removal technologies.

The report argues that increasing fossil fuel production is an ineffective short-term solution for energy security due to the global nature of oil and gas markets. Instead, it uses the U.S. Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to demonstrate that clean energy incentives—such as EV tax credits and building electrification—would significantly reduce U.S. fossil fuel demand. In a 'Moderate Scenario', these policies would reduce annual oil consumption by over 180 million barrels by 2030, more than offsetting 2021 Russian oil imports, and reduce natural gas consumption by 4.7 trillion cubic feet, roughly 85% of the EU's 2021 Russian gas imports. The report also estimates GHG emission reductions of 740 to 1,230 million metric tonnes by 2030.

The analysis finds that the 'Infrastructure Bills' could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 1,067 to 1,510 million metric tonnes by 2030, potentially putting the U.S. on track to meet its NDC of 50-52% below 2005 levels. The most critical drivers are the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) and clean energy tax credits, which together could drive the power sector to 70-85% clean generation. Additional benefits include the creation of 449,000 to 638,000 job-years and the avoidance of 4,600 to 7,000 premature deaths annually by 2030, with health benefits concentrated in communities of color.

The research paper proposes a comprehensive policy pathway for the United States to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and a 50% reduction in GHGs by 2030. Using the U.S. Energy Policy Simulator, the authors argue that a small group of targeted policies—specifically a clean electricity standard, zero-emission vehicle mandates, and building electrification—can drive this transition. The analysis suggests that this pathway would not only meet climate goals but also expand the U.S. GDP by $920 billion by 2050 and create nearly 5 million new job-years, while significantly reducing premature deaths and respiratory illnesses due to the phase-out of fossil fuels.

The research paper evaluates the impact of a 1.5°C-compatible policy scenario for Nevada, projecting that deep decarbonization across electricity, transportation, and buildings could add $700 million to the state economy and create 4,500 jobs by 2030. It contrasts a 'Business-As-Usual' outlook, where emissions are expected to increase by 12% by 2050, with a strategic policy package including a 100% clean electricity standard by 2035 and a transition to all-electric vehicle and building equipment sales. The analysis also highlights significant public health benefits, estimating the prevention of over 120 deaths annually by 2030.

The report proposes a comprehensive policy pathway for the United States to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, aligning with IPCC 1.5 C targets. Central to this strategy is a Clean Electricity Standard (CES) requiring 100% clean electricity by 2035 and the total elimination of coal power by 2030. The pathway includes transitioning to 100% zero-emission vehicle sales for light-duty vehicles by 2035 and all-electric building equipment by 2030. The analysis indicates that this transition would increase U.S. GDP by $997 billion per year by 2050, create 5.5 million new job-years, and avoid over 65,000 premature deaths by 2050.

The report finds that Minnesota's business-as-usual scenario would only reduce emissions by 8% by 2050, failing to meet state goals or 1.5°C targets. While a proposed 100% clean electricity standard by 2040 could reduce emissions by 19% below the reference scenario, a more comprehensive '1.5°C Scenario'—incorporating aggressive electrification of buildings and transport, industrial fuel switching, and land management—could cut statewide emissions by over 75% by 2050. This deep decarbonization pathway is projected to add $11 billion annually to the state's economy and create 39,000 additional job-years by 2050, while avoiding 700 premature deaths and 20,000 asthma incidents annually.

The Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) is projected to nearly eliminate power sector emissions and reduce economy-wide emissions by 35% by 2050 compared to business-as-usual. However, to meet a 1.5°C warming pathway, the document argues that Virginia must implement further policies across transportation, buildings, industry, and land use. A proposed '1.5°C Pathway Scenario' involving aggressive electrification and clean energy standards could achieve net-zero emissions before 2050, while generating over 11,000 job-years and increasing annual GDP by more than $2.6 billion by 2050.

The report proposes a policy framework to reach U.S. net zero emissions by 2050, projecting an annual abatement of over 6 Gt of emissions and 120,000 lives saved from reduced pollution. It details sector-specific strategies: industrial decarbonization through electrification and hydrogen; transportation via electric and hydrogen vehicle mandates; a 100 percent carbon-free electricity standard by 2050; and an all-electric building sales mandate by 2035.

The document details the use of the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to evaluate three policy scenarios for Illinois: a 'No Policies' case, an 'Existing EEPS + Fixed RPS' case, and a 'Strengthened EEPS + RPS' case. It outlines specific adjustments made to EIA AEO 2014 cost and performance assumptions for various generating technologies, including wind, solar, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage, to better reflect project-specific data and recent studies. Additionally, it provides the calculation methods for energy efficiency costs and savings based on Illinois utility filings.

Energy Innovation uses the California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to propose a 'Deeper Decarbonization Scenario' for California. This pathway prioritizes mature technologies—such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and electric appliances—to achieve emissions reductions of 47 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, compared to the state's current Draft Scoping Plan which relies on uncertain carbon dioxide removal. The proposed scenario includes a 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales standard for cars and light-duty trucks by 2030, 100 percent electrification of new appliances by 2030, and a carbon neutral electricity system by 2035. These actions are estimated to add $28 billion to the state's economy and create nearly 170,000 new jobs by 2030, while preventing over 1,300 deaths and 26,600 asthma attacks annually by 2030.

The Union of Concerned Scientists developed the Climate 2030 Blueprint using a modified version of the National Energy Modeling System (UCS-NEMS) to evaluate a 'Blueprint case' against a 'Reference case'. The Blueprint case centers on a cap-and-trade program starting in 2011, designed to reduce U.S. emissions to 26 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 56 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This cap is supported by complementary policies in energy efficiency, electricity generation, and transportation to lower the overall cost of compliance. The analysis incorporates supplemental data on building and industrial efficiency from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy and biomass supply curves from the University of Tennessee and Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The document outlines a supplemental analysis by the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) to quantify the impact of nine energy efficiency policies across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. By 2030, these policies are projected to achieve cumulative end-use energy savings of 12.1 quadrillion BTUs, representing a 29 percent reduction in projected energy consumption compared to a reference case. The analysis estimates that annual policy costs will rise from $7.5 billion in 2020 to $13.4 billion in 2030, stimulating private investment of $113.6 billion by 2030. Key policies include federal appliance standards, an Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS) for electricity and natural gas, updated building codes, and expanded R&D. The modeling utilizes the Energy Information Administration's NEMS model to determine effects on electricity generation, carbon dioxide emissions, and energy prices.

The document outlines modifications to the EIA's AEO 2008 NEMS model to better reflect actual construction costs, updated tax credits, and state renewable electricity standards. It provides detailed capital cost and performance assumptions for various energy technologies, including wind, solar, geothermal, coal, natural gas, and nuclear power. The authors argue that EIA costs often underestimate actual project expenses, particularly for nuclear and coal plants. The text also defines a 'Blueprint Case' featuring a national renewable electricity standard ramping up to 40% by 2030 and a federal demonstration program for coal with carbon capture and storage. Finally, it assesses the technical potential of various renewable resources across the U.S.

The report outlines the assumptions used to model transportation emissions reductions by 2030, including fuel economy targets, the adoption of plug-in hybrids, and the deployment of cellulosic ethanol. It describes adjustments made to the AEO 2008 model to reflect more aggressive efficiency standards and the impacts of smart growth policies.